Mike, I note that Comsec has 9.2c as an earnings estimate for FY12. This would be a terribly disappointing performance if delivered and I would be out quick smart and wouldn't return while current management are in place.
EPS FY2011 was 9.7c (5.6c in the second half) and management has confirmed in writing that they expect to maintain double digit organic growth. I would expect a confession if this wasn't to be achieved. Management however do disappoint - CSV being the classic example.
EPS has grown from 5.5c FYE 2007 to 9.7c FYE 2011 - generally speaking ASZ management has performed to guidance for the last few years. The $100 million contract expectation has been raised and not been met yet which has hurt credibility.
AGM presentation 23/11/2011
"FY11 result was characterised by a healthy 11% organic growth across ASG’s businesses The strength of the result, in a patchy operating environment validates ASG’s vertically integrated business model and recurring revenue base Long term recurring contracts secured in FY10 and now making a meaningful revenue contribution This is key point of differentiation for ASG and these contracts are expected to continue generate incremental revenue in FY12 and beyond"
Outlook from same presentation: "Expect the continuing trend of double digit organic growth in FY2012 through • Increased Federal Government sector spending • No managed service contracts “roll off” • Securing new contracts • Mining sector spending forecast to free up"
I would expect EPS FY12 between 10c to 10.5c (at the upper end based on guidance)
ASZ Price at posting:
80.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
