Your share price calculation misses the mark. You have calculated the theoretical upside multiple that one would achieve compared to the current valuation. I think you want to know what the share price is that drops out of the valuation.
For example, the share price calc using FY15 is $1.10 (Equity value of $1,097.5m/992.9m shares). FYI the stock reached a high of 96c last year (5 Jan 2011) and an all time high of $1.91 in June 2008. HCC prices were a different beast during those periods and we now appear to be facing a slow down in the steel space. Hence the need to be conservative and realistic in your assumptions.
It is difficult to get direct exposure to HCC, which is why this stock should trade at a premium to peers. The fact that GNM trades at a massive discount is solely due to mgmt and s/h structure. I'm not sure what mgmt attributes the discount to but I'm sure they are tired of fielding calls from unhappy shareholders. Imagine being their IR guy!
I think of GNM as a cheap call option that does not expire - you are likely to lose most of your investment, but if it goes right you'll make multiples from current levels.
In terms of an option play, I would rather be in GNM than any of the speccy QLD explorer/developers. With their crappy coal, "pending" infrastructure access, and massive capex/dilution to come.
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