I actually made a good profit on UMC, but only because I bought in early, but hey, to say that shareholders got screwed is an understatement. Lesson learnt is never to invest in a company which is controlled by an ex-stockbroker. Trust me, it wasn't the lack of rail infrastructure which killed the stock but greed from a select few.
I will agree with you, in that PDY's share price will struggle until the rail is sorted out, however the issue is shared by the majority of bulk commodity stakeholders in the Mid West, so that makes it a bigger reason to find a common solution. That said, it's clear that OPR is going to need the assistance of the Chinese to help fund the port and rail infrastructure, and what many here are hoping for is that they will use Padbury's IP as a vehicle to make it happen.
Bear in mind that UMC's Railway deposit was in the heart of the Pilbara and neighboured BHP and RIO, so there was no way that those two would allow the Chinese to get their hands on a deposit at their doorstep.
If you think about the Mid West as the last frontier of iron ore deposits in Australia, it is also the last chance the Chinese will have to break the stranglehold on Australian iron ore which has been shared between BHP and Rio for decades.
The other point to consider is that whereas PDY/AGU are keen to prove up some DSO to help with early cash flows, there's an ever growing concern that the quality of hematite is falling due to the necessity to blend inferior ores as the reserves of superior ores diminishes. It certainly hasn't reached critical levels yet, nonetheless, development of magnetite deposits will be critical in helping to maintain Australia's future income.
Yes, the Oakajee port and rail infrastructure is a massive and expensive project, BUT it will happen as there's no substitute which the Mid West has to offer.
PDY Price at posting:
1.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held