lyc & malaysian politics, page-16

Hi Nightstalker,

I just wanna add some additional points here which will help the readers at hotcopper. I am born in Malaysia also so i have some pretty good idea about Malaysian politics.

Believe it or not back then about 20 years ago Anwar Ibrahim was a rising star politician of the UMNO party (the current party in power), he had a father son relationship going with Mahatir Mohammad and everything was going so well for him been promoted to deputy prime minister. There were even talks of him been the next ruler of Malaysia once Mahatir retires.
Then is 1997 the Asian Financial crisis came which brought the country to it knees and Mahatir and Anwar had a strong falling out over differences in how to run the country in solving the crisis. Basically a different ideas in economic theory and so Mahatir banished him from the party and sent him to jail over corruption and sodomy. Anwar would later come out of jail swore reveng and formed the opposition party.

Socrates44 raised some valid points about the opposition party BUT his points doesn't give the whole picture because the essence of the good points he has raised all comes down to mathematics. People who read my post notice i always give odds and probabilities but i cant help that because that how i was trained to look at things. I play poker part time and my best friend is a professional poker player and we always discuss odds and probabilities......

So the essence of all this is what the odds of the opposition party winning the election?

1) Well we know 60% of the Malaysia population is Malays and 30% of the population is Chinese. The Opposition party has mostly the support of the Chinese BUT the UMNO party has the support of the Malays. Like be very basic so 60% vs 30% i like my chances.

2)The UMNO party has been doing alot of work in the past helping the poor. Well also know that Opposition party has mostly the support of the middle class BUT the UMNO party has the support of the Super Wealthy and the Rural poor. I know for a fact that the rural population out numbers the middle class people of Malaysia...Again i like my odds.

3) Alright lets go back in history as a guide. Does anyone know how many years the current government has been in power? Let me give you the answer......52 years. 52 years is blood long time and i don't see the current government changing as history would suggest. Let me get this point right the unrest in Malaysia is NOTHING like the Middle East! The people aren't starving alright and the Malaysian people are well fed on curries, fried Kway teows, Mee gorengs and roti canais~! Look at how big and round their tummys are, they Malaysians just love to complain alot~!

When people had the last Bersih protest rally against the government the people dispersed by 5 O clock why? Because they are hungry and they wanna go home to eat and sleep. Are these people really suffering?? The people in the middle east suffer so much that they protest and starve themselves and riot for DAYS. I bet you to ask any Malaysian you know who will win the next General Election and 9 times out of 10 you will get the answer UMNO and in fact even Socrates44 Malaysian friend is betting on Lynas gives you an indication who he is expecting to win the election!

4)So in conclusion whats the real probability of the opposition party winning the election given the 3 facts i have mentioned above? Conservatively i give them a 10% chance of winning. By heck let be super conservative lets double it and make it 20%. Mannnnn i love my odds i am 80% certain that UMNO will win the next election. Go to any casino which place will give you 80% odds in your favour? None because you know if they do you will be going there every day and the casino will lose their business!

So based on 80% chance of success and a 500% payout at least i am practically all in with my money and life savings PLUS 20% leverage. Before people gasp at this let tell you my scenario. Young still have another 30 years of working ahead of me, 6 figure income. My partner also even younger then me with a 6 figure income so WORST CASE should things not work out for me and Opposition party wins the election which is 20% conservative probability Lynas will fall to 50c.

AT 50c i will sell out of my shares and it becomes a house deposit which i can use to buy a house and get married like every young normal couple.....BUT should the 80% odd work in MY favour i will practically become a multi-millionaire, my house paid off & my partner can retire (Coz she deserve it and i feel sorry that she fell for a Lynashead and he talks about Neodymium and Duncan all day) and for me....well i will still be working on my 6 figure income job because i love what i do.

Hope this helps.