lyc & malaysian politics, page-28

Either you had left Malaysia for quite sometime or you know nothing on the previous current politics of Malaysia until you keep lost the track of time.Let me easily dispute what you had highlighted below :

Whatever between Mahatir and Anwar is all about power struggle.This I agreed. Now for your 4 points and conclusion below :

1.No doubt the Malay comprises 60% population of Malaysia but not all supporting the racist Umno party. There are other Malay Party call PAS and Anwar's multiracial PKR which comprises more Malays. So at the current moment Umno only comprises 30 % support from the Malays while the other 30% goes to PAS and PKR. Before Anwar was driven out by Mahatir, PAS can only garnered 20%of the Malay votes but now with the combination of PKR the Malay votes has been split 50 :50.Regarding the chinese population around 29% of the chinese support the opposition chines party call DAP which is in PKR and PAS coliation call PR while Umno ( BN ) chinese party MCA managed only to get 1 % of the Chinese votes.Political analyst analyzed that MCA will be wipe out in the next election.After 308 ( 2008 ) election, when the ruling party almost lost the people now has tasted people power and know how to use their votes. So the chances is either 50 : 50 or 45 % to PR and 55 % to BN .Of course I won't predict BN willlose due to their past electoral results plus help from the election commissioner,phantom voters and the government machinery.

2.Umno being doing a lot to help the poor ?Which planet are from man ? Just come to Kuantan ( Where Lynas is held ) and look at those hardcore poor natives Malaysian alongside the road to Muadzam Shah then you make your point.There are many more but I don't think it is appropriate to discuss it here.Umno is only enriching themselves and their cronies.Hey they are super rich until they can even build many white elephants with the current 100 storey tower in progress.Now most people can managed to survive among themselves in Malaysia ( Even the hardcore poor)with or without Umno's help or any other opposition party.To the people now whoever rules will not be a problem. The problem is how they withstand corruption and address them and also how they see the people point of view.So don'tgive Umno credit for that.However Umno for the past 30 years I agreed.Now ? I think you had forgotten how they turn racist and attack other races LIVE on TV in November the year 2006 which cause the downfall of the previous prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in 2008.They became more worst until now and keep accusing other races including their own of being ungrateful. Now, the current prime Minister is a good man but the people around him are not and also he has too many excess baggage which he did not address. Not tomentioned now after Mahatir's era the current Umno are being controlled by Political warlords and Mahatir is one of them.

3.The government has been in powers for 52 years no doubt about that too with one Prime Minister dictating his rule for 22 years and now become Malaysia Minister Mentor ( Mean for sarcasm )and hold on the country firmly. However IT technology are not very strong at that time and people cannot get wider information other than propaganda from Malaysia mainstream media which is shamelessly supporting the government.The turning point starts with Anwar conviction in 1998 and IT technology starts to get better and by 2008 The then Malaysia Prime Minister suffered hugh loses and almost lost the election.In 1998 BN lost 2 states.In 2004 they win handsomely but in 2008 they lost 5 states to the opposition and also almost all parliamentary seats at the federal territories.The reason IT technology became better and better and we had blog ,Facebook, Twitters etc.People already start looking for alternative media and the current Prime Minister is not doing any better with excess baggage on his bag.People aren't starving but now people don't want corrupted government. I won't apple polished Umno just to say they are good if I were you.History has been changed in 1969, 1998 and better in 2008 so with the current Prime Minister performance I don't think history can be a guide now but I believe new history will be created.

4.10 % chances of opposition winning election ? I give them 45 to 50 % included they had to go through many hurdles like election fraud,Phantom voters,Help from government machinery and also help from the election commissioner. 10% is already history 15 years ago maybe history can be repeated if IT technology is not that advance. Now ? Time changes.People are not stupid.The most educated malays and other races will go to the opposition if they ever joined politics.Although PAS is a religious political Malay party, the people are looking at them as replacement to Umno chauvinism. My bet is The next election is more worse than 2008 but however Umno will just barely scrap through while some of their components parties like the MCA will be wipe out and they will depend heavily on East Malaysia to win the simple majority.In West Malaysia other than Johor which is Umno stronghold the others states will fall to the opposition with PAS leading the colliation.Pahang,our Prime Minister home state will fall too unless they address the Lynas issue quickly.

My conclusion is you seems to think that there are only Chinese in opposition parties and had overlook the other two main player like PAS and PKR.I have some doubt whether you area Malaysian because you seems not to know what is the current political situations in Malaysia.