FDM freedom oil and gas ltd

numbers and tea leaves, page-9

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    For those playing at home:

    In October 2011 Linc Energy (LNC) completed a purchase of ~13,400 net acres of oil leases in the same region that Maverick is operating, containing 20.5 million barrels of 1P and 22.3 million barrels of 2P oil, while producing at a rate of ~3,300 BOPD. The deal cost Linc US$261 million.

    This means they paid:

    US$0.2647 per acre per BOPD per million barrels of 2P oil. Bear with me here.

    Now, apply this to Meat Puppet's June prediction for MAD:
    9328 acres of land similar to that bought by Linc;
    200 million barrels of 2P oil; and
    2000 BOPD predicted (I think this is stretching it but whatevs).

    Multiply this through the factor above, and you get a June "valuation" for MAD (based on the price paid by Linc for similar assets) of $987.6million.

    Note that this doesn't include any rerating of 2P reserves to 1P, as expected before the end of the FY.

    Using current forex rates, this gives us a June target using Meat Puppet's forecast of AUD$2.48 per share.
 
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