Assumptions:
-LAMP achieves & maintains production status
-Production of 11m kg / year (Phase 1)
-Production Costs of $15/kg
-Number of Shares 1.7bn
-Tax of 15% (guesstimate combining royalty and portion of taxable revenue in Oz)
-Contingency Costs/Sustaining Capex 15% of revenue
-P/E = 12
At Basket Price (BP) of $50
-Revenue = $550m
-Prod Costs = $165m
-Sustaining Capex/Contingency = $83m
-Simple Earnings Before Tax (SEBT) = $303m
-Simple Earnings After Tax (SEAT) = $257m
-EPS = 15.125c
-SP = $1.83
NOTE: This is with Basket Price (BP) of only $50.00/kg
At BP = $55, SP = $2.11
At BP = $60, SP = $2.39
At BP = $65, SP = $2.67
At BP = $70, SP = $2.95
At BP = $75, SP = $3.24
At BP = $80, SP = $3.52
At BP = $85, SP = $3.80
If the P/E = 15, we would need a BP of $74.29/kg (under the above assumptions, for Phase 1 only) to achieve $4 SP
NOTE: This is based on Phase 1 ONLY and includes (IMO) considerable commercial contingency.
Based on 22m kg/year (under above assumptions, P/E = 12):
At BP = $50, SP = $3.65
At BP = $55, SP = $4.22
At BP = $60, SP = $4.78
At BP = $65, SP = $5.34
At BP = $70, SP = $5.91
At BP = $75, SP = $6.47
At BP = $80, SP = $7.04
At BP = $85, SP = $7.60
Hopefully this provides some perspective and if anyone has refinements to propose to the above, please post and I'll attempt to include them in my calculator and re-post the values when I have time.
Cheers
Freighter
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$8.18 | $8.45 | $8.17 | $64.56M | 7.746M |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 1205 | $8.28 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 1205 | 8.280 |
1 | 606 | 8.240 |
2 | 1121 | 8.210 |
1 | 2000 | 8.190 |
2 | 3722 | 8.180 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
8.370 | 3888 | 1 |
8.410 | 116 | 1 |
8.420 | 5000 | 1 |
8.430 | 1152 | 1 |
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