some additional points, page-3

  1. 8,096 Posts.
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    Edge7,
    At the moment whilst online sales growth is great. Its off such a low base. Only 1% odd of sales are generated online. So if 99% of sales are declining and 1% is growing fast, the net net is still not good.

    Yes share buy backs are good at the right price. In the future if JBH can protect its cash flow by being the most efficient opperator then it can continuously buy back shares. But without sales growth, the market will not pay up for its shares. ie the market will treat it ex-growth and apply an ex-growth PE to the stock.

    Buy backs are especially effective when a company is growing, sales growing, profit growing, and shares on issue are declining. This is not the case for JBH.

    Yes JBH shops are full, but they need to be full. Once JBH shops are empty share holders are in big big trouble. The JBH model is not a low turnover high margin business. Its low margin high turnover, which means lots of shoppers and stock turning over quickly.

    Also more importantly whats the changing composition of those shoppers. What proportion are using JBH to window shop and then check the products online.
    For old farts such as myself this is not a problem, i am not that tech savvy. But as time goes by there are more and more consumer savvy buyers out there and people like me are in decline (every year i get one year older, but every year there is one savvy kid who grows a year older).

    But even for old guys like me i slowly adapt to the new technology (but behind the eight ball, ie much slower than the younger generation).

    Recently i just found out about torrents on the internet.
    I know dowload my movies, so i never bother checking out JBH for cheap movie DVD's anymore. I used to go to JBH to buy DVD's on special. Now i just dowload them.

    This is just one example.

    In regards to JBH long term online solution, remember how i was talking about focus. JBH still has its physical shops so it has to be careful about basterdising its physical shop sales. Therefore its online approach has to be complementary. Put this against a pure online who can focus just on online and be aggressive.

    For example just look at a recent deal on catch of the day:
    http://www.goodgearguide.com.au/article/417595/fire_sale_tvs_selling_bargain_prices_updates_loom_/

    Samsung TV selling for one day only on catch of the day for $1999. The same TV in JBH selling for $2496.

    Now if i saw that add from catch of the day, and i was looking for a TV, what do i do. I run down to my nearest JBH store, check out the TV, ask the staff questions. If i like it, i then run back to the office and buy it through catch of the day.

    End result, i now have a TV not bought through JBH and which has a product life of several years, ie JBH cant come back next week and entice the same sale from me. I was in JBH shop (so shop looks busy), but no sale and nor will there be a sale for the next few years (until i replace my TV).
 
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$110.02
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