I can only hope that's accurate GeoG as I have no hope of understanding how it is derived but it looks awesome. As it stands with current JORC at 3% the resource looks sufficiently detailed and thorough - impressive effort.
A couple of things to add -
1) a 2010 presentation by IMCOA (Aust) suggesting CapEx >=$40/kg x annual production rate; suggesting $400M is needed for 10,000tpa production (>100 year mine life on 1.6Mt at 3%)
[link http://is.gd/qSYQuX]
LYC spent $450M from memory (don't quote me, but I think that was for 11,000tpa Stage 1). So $40/kg production for Capex is on the money.
2) This has the potential for destroying future EPS if done via large upfront $400M share dilution ala LYC or progressive ala PDN. In any case, mkt cap will be substantial and rival that of it's peers.
Raising money is best done at higher prices if diluted into shares issued.
3) Costs for some REE are clearly in a bubble, while others have recovered post peak so far. On the whole, without historical trends on individual prices, my guess is those prices currently in the 1000's/kg will dip before settling higher post dip. An unknown.
[ pdf http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R41347.pdf]
chart page 7
Anyways, I think it looks more than good. Short term is at the mercy of broader global environment and large capital raising.
Regards,
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