mongo's top that was, isn't - thursday, page-15

BD - you get your jocks ironed? Now - that is one helluva neat and tidy lady. Me? Wear 'em one day right way. Next day, back to front. Next day, inside out. Next day, inside out and back to front. Then ... repeat. Eventually I get round to washing them. Yes, I wash 'em. But ironing them? That's devotion.

In America:

Dow Industrials +0.12%
Dow Transports -1.41%
SP500 -0.12%
Russell 2000 -0.94%
Nasdaq100 +0.41%

Comment: Dow 30 and SP500 had narrow range days on heavy volume. Once again we’re seeing weakness in the Transports and the small caps (Russell2000), counter trend to the big indices.

We’ve now had six days up in a row on the Dow 30. Seven up is rare. But this is a casino. I’ve seen 19 reds in a row on the Roulette table. So … anything can happen.

NewHighs/NewLows 166/17. NH>NL. The ratio of NH/(NH+NL) is at 90.7%. This remains in the Do Not Sell Zone above 80%. We’re seeing more and more NL days above 10. Remember how we saw a long string of NLs below 10? Slowly the momentum is swinging away from the NHs to the NLs. It’s way too early yet – we need to see some NLs above 25 to become seriously worried.

Technical Comment on the Dow 30:

The Dow finished at 13194.1. Horizontal support now lies at 13060.
Indicators:
Stochastic: 88. Overbought. Caution
RSI.9 is at 72.8. Above 70. Caution.
MACD Histogram. Above zero. Positive.
MACD. Marginally below zero. Neutral.
CCI.14: +275.5. That’s now into the extremely high region. Caution.

This looks ready to settle back a little. CCI above 250 is rare. Six days up is rare. But it might just be consolidation.

Meanwhile the structural imbalances in the market continue (see Transports and R2000 above). Eventually these structural imbalances have to be worked off. Following on from that theme, Utilities were also down solidly last night, -1.36% and the move looked bearish. Utilities topped out in late December 2011. Utilities historically have topped out before the Dow 30 – but the divergence can last for months before the Dow 30 succumbs.

American ETFs for Australia (-1.15%), China (-3.23%), India (-1.35%) and Japan (-1.14%) were all sick last night. Ozzie Dollar down (-0.72%) and copper down (-2.3%). Doesn’t look too good for the Ozzie market today.

Redbacka