Ann: Takeover Bid - Independent Expert's Repo, page-12

  1. 819 Posts.
    re: Ann: Takeover Bid - Independent Expert... Joe,
    "I would leave Iranian Assets out of the equation @ the moment"

    The $18m spent on the drilling and BFS is not a fantasy. If we just got paid back what was spent, then more than $18m could be added to our mkt. cap perhaps as there is already, more probably than not, some anticipated dilution already in our share price (ahead of the next capital raising to bring Sandpiper into production?), and this dilution risk would unwind on an announcement of say a trade sale of the Iranian asset for such a sum.

    Of course I believe we are due back a great deal more than the $18m since it was high risk capital that was used to discover an economically and technically feasible mine.

    With Iran now cut off from financial transfers (expelled from Swift), the only way I think we will see value from Mehdiabad is either by legal action (arbitral proceedings, which would cost $2.5m and perhaps last 7 years, if you include the time for any enforcement action) or by regime change (the full-steam ahead on operating an opaque and unaccountable (like everything in Iran, including the mining licence regime?) uranium enrichment program probably limits regime life to 12 months, if you believe Obama's statements?).

    Seals,
    I think Drummond is desperate so he will probably overcome the 46 cent a share cash barrier somehow, which is why I am livid with our Directors' defence. Yes, they make some good points (the Sandpiper dilution and the fact Drummond paid the equivalent of 36 cents in the last rights issue.
 
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