I have tried to phone the company today to find out their accumulated tax losses but the woman who can answer that question is away today. I have assumed $50m as a guess but whatever it is, I wouldn't expect the company to pay any tax in the first 4 years or so. Will find out tomorrow.
Assuming revenue increase by $10m per year from next year and the cost base to rise by say $750,000 pa as well, using a discount rate of 10% gives a discounted cash flow valuation of 19.9cps. Using a 15% discount rate reduces the valuation to 15.8cps.
Below I have posted the first 5 years of a 10 year spreadsheet.
If revenues increase by $20m per year beyond 2013, the valuation increases to 30.7cps.
Conclusion: share remains good value
=====================================================
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Revenue 3.0 13.0 23.0 33.0 43.0
Costs 3.0 3.8 4.5 5.3 6.0
Profit BT 0.0 9.3 18.5 27.8
tax rate 0.43 43% 43% 43% 43%
tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.9
Profit AT 0.0 9.3 18.5 27.8
Discount rate 10% 10% 10% 10%
Discount factor 1.0000 0.9091 0.8264 0.7513
Cash flow 0.0 8.4 15.3 20.8
Discounted cf (10yrs) 151.9
Number of shares 762
Value per share 0.199
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Last
2.2¢ |
Change
0.001(2.33%) |
Mkt cap ! $54.31M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
2.3¢ | 2.3¢ | 2.1¢ | $10.97K | 520.7K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 280022 | 2.1¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
2.2¢ | 76139 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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3 | 280022 | 0.021 |
12 | 1461723 | 0.020 |
6 | 1164605 | 0.019 |
7 | 2261668 | 0.018 |
3 | 589748 | 0.017 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.022 | 76139 | 1 |
0.023 | 514753 | 3 |
0.024 | 100300 | 1 |
0.025 | 1138770 | 9 |
0.027 | 250000 | 1 |
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