IMM 6.25% 30.0¢ immutep limited

$1 billion market cap at $1 per share...., page-37

  1. TDA
    11,411 Posts.
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    Kakoii, your really getting into this one aren't you:)

    I'll take a stab at some of your comments. Your right the rates of Ovarian Cancer have dropped in recent times but I might point this out to you when looking at the future:

    "Why is population ageing attracting so much attention now? One reason is that the rapid ageing of humanity is perhaps the most salient and dynamic aspect of modern demography. As a result, its influence on public health and national economies will be dramatic. The world experienced only a modest increase in the share of people aged 60 and over during the past six decades, from 8% to 10%. But in the next four decades, this group is expected to rise to 22% of the total population – a jump from 800 million to 2 billion people (Box 1)."

    Full 2012 World Economic Forum Report here

    You were using the cancerresearchuk.org site for showing incidence in ovarian cancer, which clearly shows the 50+ age group as the most common for ovarian cancer, 65+ more so. The above statistics clearly show that these age groups (well 60+) only increased by 2% over the past 6 decades, but says in the next 4 decades will more than double from here, unfortunately we may see the number of incidences dramatically increase for ovarian cancer due to this.

    This is why I'm sure, like yourself and many others, we are investing within the Biotech space, it almost seems inevitable - unfortunately. As for all things they trend, the trend goes up and the trend goes down, rinse and repeat. Could it be that the current downtrend will be stopped simply due to sheer volume of an ageing population? Early detection is great and may it forever be on the rise, every stock within this space faces that battle.


    As for RussianR, why have you got a $1bln target in mind? Anyway, let's have a look at our mates Dendreon:

    1. April 28th 2009 they announce p3 success
    2. April 29th 2010 they announce FDA approval

    So their market cap before all this was:

    1. 2007 = $628m average - well before any results
    2. 2008 = $519m average - well before any results and the dreaded GFC in play

    See here

    We then see the dramatic rise from April 2009 through to 2010/11 to well over a $4bln company. We know the reason for the current market cap of only $1.5bln, management forecasts were well out of line and something PRR's management should be taking great notice of and learning from as far as market penetration and marketing etc. I'm sure we'll see them rise again as they prove their worth to shareholders and gain market traction.

    See chart here

    So to me, with the Nasdaq listing, it wouldn't be out of the realms of possibility to see PRR's SP double from here considering the US markets willingness to price in success with a degree of discount attached as seen with DNDN.

    Each to their own, just thoughts, one thing is for sure PRR will fluctuate as risk is on and off again.







 
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