innuendo and miinformation, page-2

Capal,

Let me see if I can summarise what's happening at the moment.


Firstly, about three weeks ago (12 trading days IIRC) CTP shares started to rise.

KNOWN FACTS:
In the first five days trading they rose 46% and had 215 Mln shares traded.
At the end of that first week the company announced a TH for a change in management.

The company then announced that JH had been sacked as CEO, that Dalton was acting CEO.

Share trading resumed.

In the next five days trading the shares rose another 40% and 195 Mln were traded.
Note that both volume and % gain were down on the first week, but actual gain was higher because of higher value.

It became clear in this time that Petroleum Nominees had now taken the #1 stake in CTP, as well as what appeared to be another account further down the list. The total did not reach 5%, however, which is a significant milestone.

At the end of the 5th the company called another Trading Halt to announce a Capital Raising.

Around this time it was pointed out that Petroleum Nominees (PN) was only incorporated on the 12th March (after the rising sales started), and was listed as one person (with a chinese name). And their office was in a building owned by or at least containing offices for Clive Palmer (CP).

Before the TH was lifted a Journalist published a peice (without substantiation that I could see) stating that CP had taken a significant interest in the company.

It was leaked the day before that CTP had sold off 10% of shares, and that turned out to be correct. What we didn't know from the leak was the rate at which the shares were sold and the offer of 2:1 options. The options to be voted on at a later point. (I would suggest that most SH on here expressed disappointment at the board's agreement).

Wednesday last week the TH was lifted, and trading resumed. Although there was high volume the day finished flat.

Thursday had reduced volume and had the shares drop from 10.5 to 10; the single biggest step on the ASX.

That ends the "known" information.

RUMOURED FACTS:
In the background it seems that CamdenBob (CB) had been working for a few months gathering support to instigate a Shareholder-called Emergency General Meeting, with the intention of removing 3 of the directors and replacing them with 3 others. The one who wasn't in danger in CB's plan was JH.

CB issued an ultimatum to the board - resign or face a call for an EGM. The board made no official response, but it was at this time that they took the measure of removing JH from the position of CEO. Co-incidence or not, we cannot be sure, as JH has lodged a claim of breach of contract (or something similar; IANAL) with the Supreme court, and therefore the matter of the ending of his contract could not be discussed.

Many here have cheered the removal of JH saying that it was him causing the problems with CTP. Others have pointed out that there are 4 members on the board, and they could outnumber him on any decision. Some point to the massive gains since his firing, and how the market has reacted so positively. Others, like me, have pointed out that volume was slightly down after the announcement, and gains were slightly lower on a percentage. However, IMO, both of those drops were rather insignificant. Just natural variation.

The buying was under way before JH was sacked. Some suggest that's because some people were in the know, but no one has come forth with any kind of proof of that.

Others have stated things like "CP wouldn't care if JH was or wasn't involved; if he liked the company enough to buy a big stake he could change the board & staff as he wished".

We do know that CTP was issued with a s249D notice, and have rejected it stating irregularities. Some have then laughed at CB and said that he's incompetant, etc. CB has pointed out that the document was reviewed by two lawyers and a barrister.

*I* would like to point out again that if a lawyer is asked to delay, it's something that they are very good at, and our appeals system works well with that delaying mentality. Lawyers can delay, and the courts help. It's not hard to identify minutia which is a possible fault and exploit it.

CB has said that he is putting together a new s294d, which will have even more signees than before.

So, as it stands now - The board is intending on calling a EGM for a vote about the options. I suggest at that time they will also call for a vote to remove JH as a director.

A number of shareholders, representing well over 10% of the shares are also asking for an EGM where they will suggest that the other three board members are dismissed.

The Shareholder EGM will also present three alternate candidates. (note it's my understanding taht the dismissals are three individuals votes, and the replacements are three individual votes, so we could lose all board and replace them with none.

I believe we should have both EGMs at the same time, and could end up with a judge ruling that.

Also, many people have asked for some details about the replacement board members being nominated. It has however been pointed out that it is a LEGAL REQUIREMENT that ALL Shareholders be notified of any information, and therefore it cannot be posted on a forum, as not all shareholders would read this.

So, if the "rebel" shareholders get their way, there will be a vote to spill and replace the current board. Each shareholder will receive in the mail a document laying out the background of the nominees, as well as some information from the current board about why they should retain their positions. And at said EGM every shareholder gets to vote.

For any of the proposals to succeed more than 50% of the voters need to support it. If you choose not to vote at all then it doesn't matter.

THE SHORT TERM FUTURE
CTP has announced that in the next few days "all will be revealed. The accepted implication is some announcement about a JV/Farm-in. The question is, are the selling off the assets in a fire sale?
After the sacking of JH the board announced that some major obstacles to progress had been removed. The obvious implication is that JH was getting in the way (yet I wonder how three board members could not stop a 4th).
JH however has long said that he wouldn't do a deal just for the sake of getting a deal done; He also said that CTP's holdings were way undervalued and a reasonable offer had not been made.

So is it a "Fire sale"? It amazes me that CTP would be able to sign things up so quickly after removing JH if they were getting a good deal; I would have to say that my expectation is that CTP will receive less than fair in deals. I think that the board released the extra shares this last week as a way of buying extra votes, showing they are doing something, and also building up the bank when they could. And if it is a fire sale, what does that mean? CTP does need to have income to continue their drilling program. They are probably close to needing more money even with the EPT of Surprise, because of their high admin costs, the cost of 3D Seismic, and the other required spending.

PURE CONJECTURE:
- CB is working for Martin Place Securities
- WESI is behind everything
- Simon Philis is "BondiJim"
- CB is JH
- Sav-J is JH
- I am JH...
(and the ubiquitous Monty Python mention "we're all JH"
- Vretts thinks the number 46 is special.

TO SUMMARISE:
-Some shareholders, "the rebels" are trying to overthrow the board. Some think this is a good thing, some a bad thing.
-The board are suddenly doing a lot of heavy lifting. Some think they are trying to protect themselves and look productive, others think this has nothing to do with "the rebels".
- No one knows all the things going on.
- The people who know the most can inform you of the least.

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I have tried to be as impartial as I could be, and at least tried to identify where it is my opinion.

- Karl