Ann: Change in substantial holding , page-3

Hi SnowKat

pretty surreal, all of $1000 or so bidding for stock

I thought I reassure myself by arriving at some sort of value for the axm exposure hmmmm, though not that reassured.

.....

$3.5m mkt cap, with around $1.3m in the bank;

cash based on; +q4 balance ($830k) -q1 forecast expense ($450k), +tax refund ($600k), +AXM fee ($350k)

$2m value for everything else; AXM exposure and DGO projects

DGO projects;
Glen Eva = 150kt net 4.5gt/au x 90% x 3% = $900k
Koala = 100% 604kt net 3.5gt/au x 90% x 3% = $450k
Eugenia = 4.4mt net 0.8gt/au x 90% x 3% = $5m
Mount Cannindah (75%) 7.5mt net $74/t x 85% x 3% = $10.5m less $5.25m expense = $5.3m
totals $11.6m

AXM options; might be something like (at 50% vol);
200m at 0.3c = 0.08c => $180,000
200m at 0.45c = 0.049c => $98,000
200m at 0.6c = 0.032c => $64,000
for a total of say $350k

all up; $1.3m cash, $11.6m projects, $0.4m AXM
grand total; $13.3m

but the thing I most wanted to know - AXM upside

also the 375m 0.8c options, vesting on production/cost targets. I'm not sure the mine life left at Wiluna but if they get to targeted 100kozpa at $1100/oz;
5yrs might get $150-200m mkt cap and 0.7c
10yrs might get $250-300m mkt cap and 1.1c

let's assume 2.5yrs down the track AXM is a huge turnover success and trading at $300m/1.1c, what is are the options worth; (at 35% vol)
200m at 0.3c = 0.8c => $1.6m
200m at 0.45c = 0.66c => $1.3m
200m at 0.6c = 0.51c => $1m
375m at 0.8c = 0.44c => $880,000

for a total of $4.78m AXM upside

Wish it was free, imo the board have essentially said to market that there's just nothing interesting enough to capture their attention at DGO

I'm sure it's not the case, but either way, it's $4.8m upside in exchange for their 110% focus and commitment (for the next few years anyway). hardly a lot.

it's not hard to argue value in DGO, but ambivalence is the problem, and it seems as though the board has just locked that in for the next 2yrs.

having backed Eshuys in (and down), I was hoping there'd be more in DGO