John, Thanks for sharing your research. Following on, I just finished reading a report by Swindell (2007) Powder River Basin Coalbed Methane Wells – Reserves and Rates along with a report by the USA EPA on the Powder River Basin. Their estimates in terms of coalbed methane reserves for that region ranged up to 40 Tcf.
In comparison, Indonesia, as a whole, has one of the largest coalbed methane (CBM) reserves on the planet, with estimates of up to 453 TCF. Interestingly though, as you rightly point out South Sumatra has coal strata that are thicker and significantly higher in gas content and saturation than that of the Powder River Basin. And, more importantly, the largest CBM basin in Indonesia just happens to be in South Sumatra (183 TCF), exactly where Quest Petroleum has secured their very large land holding (2,191 km2). As yourself and others have rightly pointed out - the question here is not about whether there is gas or not, but rather, how much! I keep reflecting back on this map in particular from QPN's investor 2012 update:
As can be clearly seen on this map of Southern Sumatra, oil and gas fields lie within and around these sub-basins (high-lighted as green circles). What is quite evident is that Quest's Ranau site is completely under-explored and very much un-tapped. Given the size and prospectivity of their land holding, along with the pattern and frequency in which O&G finds occur within sub-basins of this region, I suspect that the chances of Quest Petroleum hitting gas / oil are quite high. Their initial resource estimates account for +4 TCF and 160 MMbbl of oil. I did some back of envelope calculations and the revenue returns are staggering.
Well, as they say it will be the drill bit that does the talking soon. Drilling to commence in only 11 weeks time. If they are successful on the initial and subsequent drilling rounds, then I would not be surprised to see Quest's share price trading up into the teens. All in my opinion of course.
QPN Price at posting:
1.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
