i've done some digging

Firstly I've done some digging with analyst reports on BCI. I didn't mention to the analyst that I spoke to that I was going to post this on HC so it's best I just say 'a analyst'and not mention his company or his name. I have mentioned the word 'his', so I've already narrowed any contender down to half the population.

Analysts use a long term IO price for BCI and other IO stocks @ $95t. Only Mike Hallowell from BBY uses $130t which is why his targets for BCI are higher.

Alot of Magnetite producers would have an operating cost above $85t once you take the extra costs such as admin into account, so I don't know how any broker's analyst can give them much of a long term price at all. But be that as it may, that's why my NPV is out with theirs. I used a long term price of $130t. Also a correction, in my questions I stated "NAV" ... when that should've been "NPV".

Also I asked the analyst why BCI is considered 'high risk' by some analysts. He said that some consider BCI at FMG's mercy and so mark BCI as such.

That to me makes NO sense. BCI has a SIGNED, FULLY binding JV agreement with FMG. If FMG was to reneg on it's contract with BCI, FMG to my understanding would be liable. But it's even silly thinking that because it just wouldn't happen. I'd say that if someone tried to takeover BCI and FMG didn't like it. That there would be a clause in the NIOJV that FMG holds the right to refuse enter on their infrastructure by another third party. Any entity of sound mind wouldn't try and take BCI without talking also to FMG. The only way BCI could loss FMG infrastructure is if FMG went broke. But saying that, even if FMG went broke would they just close down a multi-billion dollar operation?

And lastly, I asked what type of discount would that analyst at Austock have given BCI with a high risk rating. He said it would be in the report. I replied, I couldn't see it anywhere and I did look hard. He replied that it would be there some where and then said, "Why are you asking me these questions? .... ring the bloke and ask him, he has his name and phone number at the bottom of the report, ask him". So when I get a sec, I'll phone him, but if anyone else what's to in the time being, go for it.

My next post.

I rang someone at Port hedland to ask about FMG's current port space and FMG's current bottleneck. It'll make for interesting reading and it could allow us to partly come to a conclusion on BCI's chances of doing at least 6Mtpa for CY13.

Off to work, bye for now.