hctv presents get smart monday, page-7

A closer look at the S&P500 and perhaps things aren't as bad as they seem.

The 65 min has the recent rally well above the 38.2% retracement of the move down. It seems to have got stopped by the 127.2% of the prior range. Anyway, the move above 38.2% took the move down out of a strong position, on one view. It did trade above it for more than a couple of hours so it seems to mean something positive (or not so negative better said).

There does, however, seem to be a lower double top in place now and the close Friday was a negative.

So I see 2 options as to what is happening:

1. Fast trend down in progress. That would mean a new low tonight, or (less likely) a small range tonight followed by wide range down tomorrow.

2. A few days of distribution / accumulation at this level for the first half of the week as the market tries to figure out whether to have a hissy fit or try for new highs.

The 3 thrust topping pattern has me tilting toward the first option rather than the second.