Another week, another all time high.
The ASX200 clocked 7,901pts on Thursday for the first time in its history, ahead of a 4-day Easter weekend.
This was achieved thanks in no small part to the S&P500 doing the same overnight, once again – the US markets continue to go crazy, which is good news for Australia’s. Wells Fargo analysts expect the US rally to continue into the foreseeable future.
We got domestic economic data on Thursday that also helped sentiment down under. Earlier in the week, we also learned Australian inflation remained unchanged at 3.4%, with core at 3.9%.
Retail sales in February were 0.3% – lower than expectations for 0.4% – and were partially driven by spending associated with Taylor Swift’s Eras tour on the east coast.
In my view, this suggests the pressure could have been even less without Swifties.
In short – and Taylor Swift aside – that data isn’t spelling “higher for longer” to me, when considering the RBA rate cut implications.
Nor are job vacancies, also released on Thursday.
While the job market remains tight, we’re starting to see weakness picking up month-after-month. Take a look at the following chart:
Gold prices have also clocked records as iron ore continues to remain under pressure. Uranium hasn’t budged since it slipped to US$85/lb last week; lithium remains slightly higher than where it was earlier this year, but, not really life-changing gains.
Copper also continues to hover just above US$4/lb; Brent Crude has been flirting with the upper US$80/bbl range but staying mostly firm at the midpoint.
Iron ore’s continued downward pressure is a testament to ongoing market uncertainty on the strength of China’s economy – Bloomberg reported this week the government is deliberately leaking positive economic data early, ahead of official releases, to assuage those concerned.
I did flag last week, though, that Chinese retail and industrial production data came in a bit stronger than expected.
Also: Anthony Albanese has announced a $1B injection into Australia’s solar manufacturing capacity.
But I have a hunch it’s got a lot to do with the fact we’re set to miss our “Net Zero” 2030 targets.
Here’s the headlines that grabbed my eye this week:
Australian Economy
- Australian CPI inflation unchanged at 3.4% in February; core inflation at 3.9%
- Australian retail sales in February grew 0.3%, below expectations of 0.4%
- Australian job market remains tight but vacancies are continuing to fall
- Canberra calls for minimum wage to increase in line with inflation
Australian Equities
- 29Metals shares sink -35% as climate change shutters another project
- Perseus Mining finally wins out over Silvercorp for Orecorp takeover battle
- Hard-to-love minnow Osteopore jumps by 1,000%, then voluntarily suspends
International Equities
- Wells Fargo sees the US market rally continuing despite 30% gain in 5 months
- Chinese oil giant Sinopec’s 2023 profits fell 13% as COVID-era oil boom fades
- Donald Trump’s Truth Social backdoor lists on NASDAQ via Digital World Corp