The start of 2024 was defined by an upbeat optimism for uranium.
The price was climbing in late 2023, a bright spot standing out in an otherwise dull global market environment. Just think back to the record low volume of IPOs we saw on the ASX and international markets last year.
But uranium was, forgive the pun, glowing.
Key to converting most bears into bulls for the new year was that uranium prices had breached pre-Fukushima levels. I spent a lot of time writing about uranium upside for this masthead, and so did the rest of the financial commentariat. Even my Grandmother became interested.
All who called a bull run for uranium were then vindicated when prices climbed over US$100/lb during one brief period earlier this year.
Since then, however, the nuclear fuel has been hovering closer to US$85/lb. So what’s going on? And will prices continue to fall, or rise from here?
It goes without saying this is ultimately up to fate, but there are some recent developments in the uranium market we can look at when trying to divine where uranium prices could go – and with it, potentially the share prices of companies that operate in the space.
China, supply, and attitudes
In terms of infrastructure and supply and demand fundamentals, the major uranium catalyst heading into FY25 ins’t the USA’s tenuous ‘ban’ on Russian uranium; nor is it massive supply increases from Canada’s Cameco (though this is important for sentiment – more on that in a moment.)
And while Kazatomprom’s production issues linger, there’s a fresh catalyst uranium watchers are increasingly eyeing as FY25 gets underway. It’s China – namely, that country’s acceleration of nuclear energy capacity.
The World Nuclear Association (WNA) announced in April of this year that China “has become self-sufficient in most aspects of the fuel cycle.”
Key to this is China’s rapid construction of at least 20 new nuclear reactors in the country underway as of mid-June in 2024.
This becomes more significant when you consider that in a May report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) calculated China had no less than 55 working nuclear reactors already online, able to produce some 53.2GW of power.
While the Chinese economy remains in the doldrums on all fronts – exemplified by iron ore prices – it’s still miles ahead of the USA when it comes to building out nuclear capacity. In fact, the authors of the EIA report stated that “it took the US nearly 40 years to add the same nuclear power capacity as China added in 10 years.”
China’s rapid construction of nuclear power capacity can be underscored by the fact the country is currently building a uranium feedstock storage warehouse on the border of China and Kazakhstan – the world’s largest producer, when it isn’t having output troubles – in Xinjiang.
That warehouse is set to store up to 7.8M pounds of uranium – as part of its Phase I design – which will also become the site of a major uranium trading hub, as described in a recent quarterly update from Kazatomprom.
So that’s the bull case for demand. But then there’s Cameco’s February announcement.
What was that about Cameco supply?
One of the key factors that helped to push uranium futures below US$100/lb earlier this year – Kazatomprom’s output problems notwithstanding – was an announcement from Canada’s largely state-owned uranium miner Cameco.
Cameco, while not the largest producer, can give Kazatomprom a decent run for its money.
And so it was that when the company announced it would boost production through the mid-2020’s and beyond, traders suddenly felt a lot less risk-on.
Cameco has a plan to produce up to 43 million pounds of uranium from its McArthur River/Key Lake project – that’s made up of an 18M pound target for this year, and, an expansion of capacity to 25M pounds on site “when the time is right.”
While China’s economic woes, run-of-the-mill corrections following bull runs and an always-fickle commodities trading market were also part of the downward pressure, it was Cameco’s production boost announcement that really knocked uranium out of the US$100+ range.
ASX stocks here at home were, following the Canadian giant’s announcement, slaughtered in February of 2024.
It appears that Cameco’s announcement was overlooked by many uranium watchers as focus drifted towards the USA’s recently passed legislation “banning” Russian uranium imports (despite actually allowing them up until 2028.)
Cameco announced its production boost news in February of 2024.
On the 5th of that month, uranium prices were US$100/lb. By March 11, prices were at US$85/lb, and they’ve stayed rangebound there since.
A chart tracking NYMEX prices speaks for itself:
At the time of writing – lunchtime on Monday July 1, 2024 – uranium prices remain at US$85.75/lb.
Whether or not this is good reason to adopt a more pessimistic view on the nuclear fuel feedstock is in the eye of the beholder.
Even at US$85/lb, the commodity is up 54% YoY and up +1.42% WoW. But its rangebound nature can be exemplified in that MoM price action is down -5%.
Ultimately, with Kazatomprom still working through issues and Cameco set to fill much of that gap, there’s no real meaningful catalyst immediately obvious to suggest prices will be leaving the US$85 range any time soon.
Of course, that US$85 figure also reflects a still robust historical high for the commodity, still well-above pre-Fukushima prices. If you ignore an anomalous spike in 2006-2007, the price of uranium is still near all time highs.
So with that in mind – what companies on the ASX are operating in the space through FY25?
All of the below financial information is correct as at 1pm Monday 1 July according to a service that ports Morningstar data.TMO has a relationship with Haranga and Infini.
Haranga Resources (ASX:HAR)
- Share price: 8.1cps
- Market cap: $7.2M
Haranga Resources is a microcap uranium explorer operating in Senegal, West Africa.
The company’s flagship Saraya project has seen geotechs active on-site across FY24 plugging away at metallurgical tests most recently, with the company posting a 90% uranium extraction result on ore from Saraya.
Additional to its flagship is a second region of intense interest called Sanela.
The company is also of interest to many uranium watchers given its novel methodology utilised at multiple times to help get an idea of where uranium mineralisation lies on-site – the company tests termite mounds which, by nature of the insects’ activity, brings up soil samples to surface where they can be easily collected.
Infini Resources (ASX:I88)
- Share price: 31cps
- Market cap: $11.7M
Infini Resources is another microcap uranium explorer based in Newfoundland, Canada.
The company most recently gathered trader interest when it shot up 100% to 31cps on Monday 1 July on the back of high-grade uranium assays found in soil samples with some results hitting grades over 1%.
For context, many hard rock uranium mines in production handle ore significantly lower on a parts per million basis. While only a few results clocked over 1%, a number of other assay hits considered high grade were also clocked.
That news followed exploration fieldwork on-site in late May which logged evidence of mineralisation at its flagship Portland Creek project.
Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL)
- Share price: $1.30/sh
- Market cap: $989M
Turning away from microcaps and to established majors, Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL) is one of the better known uranium miners on the ASX. In some circles, it’s also a household name.
The long-running stock has rights to one of the largest uranium landholdings on the ASX at Tumas in Namibia and has posted an impressive +71% 1Y return as uranium price movements have rallied upward since this time last year.
That rally saw the company’s April raising oversubscribed to, even as prices had by then slipped from US$100/lb to US$85/lb. In June of 2024, the company officially made it into the ASX200 index – a testament to a still-robust interest in what uranium holds for FY25.
Boss Energy (ASX:BOE)
- Share price: $3.93/sh
- Market cap: $1.6B
Boss Energy is another established producer within the ASX-listed uranium sector with its onshore Honeymoon project in South Australia the subject of great interest to uranium watchers even before the 2023 rally.
The company most recently flagged fresh uranium intercepts at Gould’s Dam – nearby existing assets – which left management commenting on the target of interest’s “strong potential.”
Most notably – the company anticipates to kick off domestic uranium sales before the start of CY25.
The company also recently flagged a surprise copper find on-site its landholding.