The biggest news of this week (or this month) as I see it is, unfortunately, depressing – while Wall Street’s two best-known indexes are still going gangbusters, the ASX200 appears to be missing out on a Santa Rally.
It’s not all doom and gloom: The ASX200 is up just over 7% over the last six months as at close on Friday. But if you look at two-week performance – don’t forget we’re halfway through December – the ASX200 has actually been declining since Dec. 1.
Can the Australian market zeitgeist get together and turn the ship around in the last two weeks of the year? That remains to be seen, but we could see 2024 a year where Santa didn’t come down the chimney.
But then, looking back to Wall Street – total short interest on U.S. equities dipped in November, and, perhaps more interesting, Blackstone has said it could exit half of its private equity investments through 2025.
In between the lines, there’s a possibility there we could see public equities come back in a big way through 2025. This is probable given we’re heading into a Republican administration; then there’s the fact it’s Trump.
Interesting times.
Looking back to down under, one of the year’s most eagerly anticipated sort-of-IPOs looks set to launch in February – that of Chemist Warehouse.
In reality, though, it’s just a reverse listing.
In essence, Sigma Healthcare will change its name to Chemist Warehouse, and that will be it. But seeing Chemist Warehouse grace the bourse could have a positive impact on morale wholemeal.
Still talking Australia, we should touch on the fact the RBA kept rates on hold. Or more importantly, in terms of market reaction, a shock unemployment read of 3.9% which defied wideheld consensus of a slight move the other way.
The Aus economy keeps adding jobs despite a paltry +0.3% GDP read in the latest data and despite still very low business and consumer confidence levels.
The overall impact of that labour data? RBA rate cut expectations were pushed back from February, where they had landed only a few days prior.
The impatience of millions of Australians waiting for a return to the old days is palpable – but it’s probably not coming back. And if it did, would we even recognise it?
Overseas, the ECB and Canada both cut their interest rates this week, and the world isn’t sure what to make of America’s disinflation journey.
But so long as the S&P500 keeps booming, honestly, who cares?
Australian Economy
- Business confidence dips after weak Q3 GDP data
- Oz unemployment reverses to 3.9% for November
- RBA keeps rates on hold; bets immediately swing to February cut
Australian Equities
- Sigma Healthcare could become Chemist Warehouse on the ASX in Feb 2025
- Embattled Star Entertainment hits record low on Monday at 18.5cps
International Economies
- Trump says any foreign company investing US$1B+ in the US will get fast track status
- Chinese Politburo cites monetary easing; further stimulus for 2025 – and market listens
- Japanese bankruptcies at around an 11Y high
- Canada cuts rates by 50bps
International Equities
- China launches investigation into NVIDIA in tit-for-tat after US Chinese company investigations
- The S&P500 has clocked nearly 60 all time highs this year…
- Perhaps unsurprisingly, NASDAQ short interest is down -0.8% late Nov
Commodities
- Coffee prices continue to climb as climate change worsens in Brazil, a major producer
- Saudis drop oil prices by more than expected as OPEC points to weak outlook
- Chinese central bank resumed gold purchases in November after pause
Geopolitics
- El Salvador claims to be sitting on US$3tn worth of ‘unmined gold’
- After over a decade of civil war, rebels defeat Syria’s Assad gov’t
Regulatory, Odds & Ends