Well, Trump’s Liberation Day-era tariffs are finally here, after being delayed and paused again and again. And in response, the ASX200…traded flat, retaining its position above 8,800pts for most of Friday intraday trades.
I’ve been saying all year tariff fatigue will shape markets in 2HCY26, and well, here we are. I’m going to need to come up with some other prediction to gloat about.
As for whether Wall Street is going to care about this through Week 33 remains to be seen. The US Thursday session ended mixed, though it’s also true to say they traded flat. The S&P500 ended down -0.08% – pretty much unchanged – the NASDAQ clocked +0.35% and the Dow went down -0.5%.
All in all, a far cry from the panic we saw on April 2. It could be a similar end to the week for Wall Street on the US session; as at 3.50pm AEST on Friday US futures were all flattish green.
Another thing I’ve been saying a lot lately: I expect that instead of tariffs, US inflation data will remain the biggest thing to watch in the weeks and months ahead. Inflation in the leading global economy has been slightly tracking upwards in recent weeks, many analysts predict this is the start of domestic US inflation due to tariffs.
Because we haven’t really had tariffs “properly” kicked in, those who have been saying ‘the effects aren’t as bad as expected’ are on dangerous ground, seeing as expectations haven’t been satisfied or missed yet.
We are entering a brave new world. But given the way the stock market (and stock markets broadly) have behaved so far in the 2020’s, I don’t really expect US inflation data to be too volatile either, unless of course we get shock reads of around 5%.
And even then, I anticipate doomsaying nightmares of a “market crash” won’t manifest.
Turning back home, there isn’t much to say this week, really.
The RBA has its August cash rate decision next week, that will by far be the big catalyst for the XJO, as for whether or not we get a cut – I’m still undecided. From where I stand, it’s 50/50, which definitely falls onto the contrarian side of things when it comes to prediction markets.
But prediction markets are often fatally optimistic. Of course, I hope to be wrong. (Really, I do!)
Until next week, things below which caught my eye through Week 32. Have a great weekend and we’ll see you on Monday.
Australian Equities
Boss Energy tells ASX no shenanigans after ditching Diggers’ press pack
EOS pops on $125M order for anti-drone-swarm laser weapon
Lindian to supply Iluka with monazite over 15Y deal; hints at possible gov’t REE price floor
Australian Economy
Living cost index from ABS shows slower rise QoQ June 2025; ASX200 unbothered
New household spending indicator shows +0.5% MoM growth in June
CBA boosts 2025 house price forecast
International Equities
Berkshire Hathaway misses fact people don’t want pre-packaged cheese slices for 2nd time
International Economies
US PMI data shows stalling services; S&P Global PMI climbs upwards in part on tariffs
NASDAQ-listed Super Micro shares sold off midweek as data centre targets miss
India’s Central Bank keeps rates on hold after June 50bps slash
Tariffs
Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs are back – but the ASX200 hardly took notice
Trump claims US will stage tariffs up to 250% over 24 months
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