short term trading - week starting 23rd april, page-2

Weekly Fundamental and Technical Analysis Prospects - Week Starting 23rd April 2012 (No. 12)

Here’s this week’s FA and TA List. The newer items first and those carried forward from last week towards back of list (some of the items from last week have a time horizon of more that one week).
Again, I have taken the liberty of adding some info where it was unclear or fixing typos where I came across them. Hope no one minds. I have reduced the list to 10 or so items again. If you would like me to change your item then please let me know and I will update and I will re-issue. Will open for submissions on next week’s list this Friday after market close. All market caps are undiluted and were correct at time of posting (Note: Max time for any entry on list will be 4 weeks after which time it will be removed).

Important Note: Remember just because it appears on the list does not necessarily mean it will rise in price... it may actually fall or do nothing. So it is critical that research it first and make your own mind up to invest or not. I suggest you run a stop-loss at all times when trading/investing. How tight your stops are depends on your threshold to risk and financial pain. Lastly I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided by Spotters as I do not have the time to research all the facts that have been provided. Best of Luck.!


Weekly Fundamental Analysis Prospects
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MNC Cu, Base metals in Peru South America – ASX/AIM listed stock 'Los Calatos' (a copper porphyry project) with a current JORC of 926Mt @ 0.37% Cu... A further 64,000m of drilling has been done since the maiden major compliant resource. Upgrade Jorc due estimates for the upgrade range from 2.5bt and upwards. This would possibly make it a potential takeover target. The company has already been approached by various majors. Bolstering its credentials as a world class low cost copper mine is Calatos' desert location. It is close enough to the sea to allow for use of seawater in its processing plants. Surrounding population is minimal. Just as a recent example of M and A activity in the industry: Sumitomo recently paid $724 million for a 45% stake in Quadra FNX's Sierra Gorda copper and gold project which had total resources of 2918mt at 0.35% Cu (MCap:$323m)
[This week expecting a large Jorc resource upgrade for Los Calatos project]
Spotted By: Ether1988 (No Position Held)

RIA - Oil/gas exploration offshore Cote d'Ivore Africa. Currently drilling the Gazelle P-3 well. Recent Problems with 1st drill hole. New hole is expected to be at 1000m by Tuesday. Drilling success will have a very positive bearing upon the overall development economics. At $5/bbl and $0.10/mcf in-ground, a discovery would be worth $128m (~$0.18/sh fully diluted) net to RIA (at 85% interest). A third well will target the high impact, oil prone, Chouette (84mmbbls and 42Bcf P50 potential) exploration prospect at the Hippo Cluster. A success at Chouette would warrant a valuation of around $361m at $5/bbl in-ground (or $0.50/sh) net to RIA. Recent broker target of $1.00/share RIA is trading on an attractive EV/2C multiple of $1.70/boe (MCap:$266m) Click here to see more info and chart
[Awaiting oil well drill results from the Gazelle P-3 well offshore Coted’Ivore]
Spotted By:Exmouth79 (Position Held)

MBE - Mobile advertising firm, Tiny market cap, at around 7-8mil with a revenue for March quarter of 3.5mil forecast and approximately 14mil for the year at current revenue rate! Has a client base of over 50 brands including a lot of majors such as Toyota, Mortgage Choice etc. Became cash flow positive in September 2011 and has made small profit increases leading to a half yearly profit despite 2 bad months in June and July (MCap:$7.2m).
[Ongoing profitability after going cash flow positive]
Spotted By: Nihilism (Position Held)

PHG - Health Care, Pulse Health has improved profit and will report quarterly cash flow shortly. It was the subject of an unsolicited expression of interest which was not sufficient to be recommended by the board in 2011. If it reports improved cash flow again it may be looked at for takeover. (MCap:$12.8m)
[Possible improved cash flow]
Spotted By: Finch2 (Position Held)

QTG - Security services and technology reported on 2/3/12 in its words that the company will seek to engage directly with potential private and listed companies interested in a merger or acquisition of the group to create synergies and improve value for shareholders directors note that the net assets are 4.4c. So with the quarterly cash flow report we may get an update on the situation (MCap:$5.2m)
[Qtly update on cash flow maybe news of merger/acquisition]
Spotted By: Finch2 (Position Held)

GLA - Large med grade Fe (magnetite) in Uruguay & Au in WA . Davis Tube recovery of Fe ore concentrates to 67% Fe. Doing prefeasibility on pig iron project utilising mini blast furnace technology should produce similarly quality pig iron to that produced in Brazil, close to rail and to port. Take note of the massive expenditure on exploration. Always a good sign.
(MCap:$13.5m)
[No Event given]
Spotted By: Pgamble76 (No Position Held)

OTE - Oil/Gas in Texas US, Currently drilling the Commanchee horizontal well and has a 12.5% interest in a proven oil field. Cygnet just took up a significant interest. Negative points. Just announced another duster in another region for two in a row. Positive: they give out weekly updates and have planned several other wells in near future. Well funded to carry out drilling. Price .005 and not all that many shares on issue. Own their own drilling rig. Receiving a small cash return from interest in a commercial well (MCap:$5.6m)
[Drilling horizontal well awaiting results]
Spotted By: Bluebottle18 (Position Held)

ADX - Oil/gas Tunisia, testing at onshore oil discovery at the Sidi Dhaher is days away and mobilisation of key personnel is mostly complete. Estimated 51 million barrels, volume building ,resistance looks like 9.5c (MCap:$37.7m)
[Awaiting results of well testing]
Spotted by Sunnq (Position held)

LYC - First major rare earth producer outside China. Price fall due to protest in Malaysia, plant delay and falling in Rare Earth price over last 6 months. Currently, Malaysia plant almost finish (unofficial Malaysia news say 3 weeks to finish) and official announcement say first production in Q2. Plus weekly Rare Earth price has stopped falling since 2 weeks ago and legal action by protestors should be sorted out this month.. Enter in expectation for production in next 2 months. (Market Cap:$1966m)
[Legal action with protestors may be resolved by end of month and production approaching]
Spotted By: Nzak (Position Held)

EER - Thermal Coal Explorer in Qld, Focus is in the Eromanga Basin in Qld. Targeting 2bt thermal coal. Has maiden indicated Jorc of 469mt and inferred of 280mt of thermal coal. Doing rail study to use disused rail easement from Blackall to Jerico and EOI to access GVK/Hancock railway to proposed port at Abbot Point. Vastly undervalued to peers such as neighbour ASX:BND
(Market Cap:$31.6m)
[Jorc upgrade expected before end of April 2012]
Spotted By: Freehold (Position Held)

AKK - Austin’s first Eagle Ford well, Krueger #1, exceeds pre-drill expectations, flowing at 95 BOEPD on a 24 hour test. High oil content (approximately 75% oil) in the productive oil window of the Eagle Ford . Taylor Sand to be tested in April. Infrastructure being prepared at site for long term flow testing with production to commence in April. Potential for significant uplift in production from horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracture stimulation. 2 new vertical wells and 1 horizontal well to be drilled at Austin’s Eagle Ford Shale Project over coming months. Richard Cottee recent appt added some extra credibility to the already top notch management team. Recently completed CR at 2.9c sitting at 2.8c strong support. (Market Cap:$41.5m)
[Testing of Taylor Sand to be performed in April]
Spotted By: MyRules88 (No Position Held)

AEB - Bio-fuels from Algae. Has developed a high yield enclosed algae growth and harvesting system in Georgia USA. Has two new projects under way one in Australia and one in the Sri Lanka. Commission of the Australian bio-fuel reactor was delayed to late April (From March) due to recent heavy rains in the Nowra Region of NSW. (Market Cap:$106m)
[Commissioning Algae to bio-fuel reactor in late April]
Spotted By: Freehold (No Position Held)

AKM - Coking Coal Northern Mongolia, Jorc 330mt premium Coking Coal.
Targeting the development of a 15 million tonne per annum ROM open pit mine at Ovoot
The PFS is 2-4 weeks away which should see it gather momentum shortly. Examining use of Multiuser Railway to Moron. Rail to Moron is part of the 2008 – 2015 Development Plan for Khuvsgul Province. Gina R is onboard, you'd think she might be onto something.. (Market Cap:$198m)
[Pre-Feasibility Study on Ovoot Coking Coal Project 1-3weeks]
Spotted By: Exmouth79 (No Position Held)





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Weekly Technical Analysis Prospects
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QPN - (Oil/Gas Sumatra Indonesia) Strong rally approx a week ago followed by retrace and strong support entering which has driven back upwards. Purchase on break to a new short term high with volume. (Mcap: $22.5m)
Spotted by: Freehold (Position Held)

NWR - (Au/Antimony Exploration) Classic "Bull Flag" setup here with heavy volume on the spike and decreasing volume on the retrace. Entry on a break above the flag with volume and expectation are a rally of similar length to the original flag pole. (Mcap: $23.5m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

CSE - (Graphite Exploration) Broke to new high on Friday and retraced back to the high where it should find support (historic resistance becomes support) expect it to make another attempt to head north IMHO . (Mcap: $12.8m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

MNC - (Cu, Base Metals in Peru South America) It has come well off its all time highs of circa 45c. After a long downtrend, news of revised Jorc seems to have pricked up the markets ears to just how undervalued it really is. Will need to achieve a break out and close above heavy resistance at 20-20.5c first. My short term price target is 25c, 20c.
(MCap:$323m)
Spotted By: Ether1988 (Position Held)

MAR - (Gold Silver in Qld and NSW) 10day,30day,50day Moving averages all crossed the 200 day MA today on high volume, a gap to be filled at 3.5 cents. Big volume spike back in January and a slow retrace over the last few months to get rid of weak hands. First target .03 for 200day MA on 2 year chart. second target .035 based upon gap. Third target .04 based upon price action from June to September last year. Fourth target (which needs gold to surge again) the highs of September 2010 10 cents (MCap:$13.2m)
Spotted by: Jutmeister1972 (Position Held)


MOX - (Graphite) had a bit of a following a month or so ago but also had a big seller around at 5 cents which put a cap on price rise, have been watching for a while and usually 5 cents would get sold into but maybe seller seems exhausted as 5 cents doesn’t get sold into like before, news in the next couple of weeks could see a move up (MCap:$7.5m)
Spotted By: Furniture (Position Held)

RIA - (Oil/Gas Exploration Cote d’Ivore Africa) Chart broken down out of recent uptrend (due to drilling problems) Hasn't been able to break lower than 37c support on several occasions. MFI and Stoch turning up, would expect MACD to as well. Only drama would be more drilling issues, but won't change what’s in the ground. Would expect them to hit the target zone around 3-4 weeks, but I'm of the opinion that this current problem says buy cheap opportunity (MCap:$266m) Click here to see more info and chart
Spotted By: Exmouth79 (Position Held)

CHZ - (Gold in Turkey) - Strong bounce off lows with some volume towards the end of last week and Closed above short term downtrend line. May retrace back to upper edge of ST Downtrend where is will find support and rally again IMO (Mcap: $75m)
Spotted by: Freehold (No Position Held)

AXE - (Graphite) Bullish Pennant forming, currently at 30.5c, target of 47c, . I'll be looking for a breach of 35c resistance with volume before taking a position. (MCap:22.7m)
Spotted By: Sam91 (No Position Held)

WCL - Stock has broken out of a downtrend with volume shown on the break. Stock should retrace a little on the back of the Doji on Friday so wait for short term bear action to fade and buy on 1st signs of support entering. STO and MACD (on daily) point to more in it. (MCap:162m)
Spotted By:Freddy7 (No Position Held)

HOG - (Gas in Ukraine), Consistent rally since Feb. Classic retrace on falling volume still inside trend channel and support entering. IMO an entry assuming support still exists and/or on break to new high short term high. (Market Cap:$68m)
Spotted By: Freehold (No Position Held)

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