Giddyup, why so bitter?
You continue to adopt a condescending and mocking attitude to my view, which I have repeatedly explained and you have actively tried to misinterpret, not understand. It's a shame because many of your posts seem balanced. This "clever dude" did explain how he came to that conclusion, although yes I did assume that people on this forum read the announcements, which perhaps some haven’t.
To me a dud well is a well that is not commercial (a well does not have to be a duster to be economically unviable, I am sure you understand what NPV is all about). I have always stated that I am happy to eat my hat and I am no expert, but the probabilities point to "duds"
Consider the latest announcement: Aus II, flowed 600 BO over what time period?
If the time period is essentially from the time the work over rig arrived we can assume a mid range double digit number, which when combined with either of the two decline curves discussed on this forum will make it non commercial, ie a dud.
Now maybe they got that 600 BO over two days who knows? the point is that announcement does nothing to point to commercial viable wells.
Production facilities merely mean they expect, or in the case of Aus II have recovered some oil and would like to therefore recover as much of the well cost as possible.
Lets keep it civil here, robust discussion helps all investors at the end of the day
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