I'm not following this much but I wanted to give my impressions all the same as I don't understand the posts saying this is good news.
As some have already said, whats missing in the presentation is glaring. Project costs and operating costs. I had though project costs had probably doubled from last official number of $26m. Now I'm thinking higher than that. (Trippled?).
I'm not following the mining side closely enough but it seems that's much more complicated than started out. (check yourself from the May presentation what it was supposed to involve and what it involves now if you want).
The barge that was to be towed by the tug and was nearly complete months ago is now 40% complete, bigger and will be motorised. Due now in August. Mmm. Likely. (I guess the tug can now be used for fishing as someone has already suggested).
Lucky Bay that was supposed to just need some sort of pressurised storage facility now needs an 80 metre extension, a loading dock, acousstic moulds and barriers and associated works. We are building a port! Exciting news. (Well current shareholders, not me just now).
The contracts which were in the process of finalisation back in May 11 for mining, transport and the port and now looking to be tendered in coming months (well the port anyway and various miningin stuff).
Shipping is now end of year, if the port contract is agreed in May. Mmm. Likely? I thought maybe end of yr for shipping. I'll guess mid 2013 now. There is extra cost in those delays.
Despite the $25.1m equity raised this year, cash is down to $15m at March (pro forma for $8m received post March 31) and then to $12m currently from the presentation. $5.8m went on the bond, the other $7m is unclear. They don't seem to have actually done anything except the preliminary drilling? They talk about the mining fleet being mobilised at some point. Construction of the DMS plant has just started. The GS plant is at the request for proposal for design and construction stage.
It appears to me they will need a lot more money just to complete everything, let alone working capital that was supposed to be an additional $8m once they started mining.
There is no talk of the bank facility that was due by now. Optimists may say new managment prefer to surprise, pessimists, its off the table. More capital raising would no surprise. I guess TRF will need to buy some shares again first!
These are my impressions. Perhaps I'm missing something? How can they do a presentation on a project without saying how much it will cost or what profitability they expect? Who would buy into a project on that basis? I don't get it.
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- plans have changed, no project or op costs
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