Grab a drink-its got longwinded as FML won't do it tomorrow-sorry.Next few years? Here's my try for a laugh(or is it?) to do that with the shares on issue,we'd have to be 1/4 the size of a Newcrest.
However there are other ways of getting there,without mentioning consolidation(a filthy CON word to me).Given the 4BN shares on issue,The easiest way to start is a share buyback with surplus cashflow,that will not accrue tax credits that can be passed on to shareholders. Say 5-10%(just like CSL's continual buybacks)a year for say the next 3yrs.Too late to do it cheaply after that is my guess.Hint Hint Taking us down to 3BN shares on issue for say $80-100m over that time(10c average),or storing shares at a DISCOUNT for our next,or future aquisitions.In the meantime,it would act as a support on the sharemarket,pushing the balance slightly in favour of the sellers and existing shareholders who have to sell for whatever reason.
If we move beyond having surplus untaxed cashflow,then we have taxed cashflow.The most constructive use if surplus to company needs being desired cash reserves/aquisition and planned development is to distribute this in the form of miniscule dividends to shareholders with credits attatched.
A combination of both could easily double a shareprice.
8c isn't going to do it,is it?Even doubling from our last peak is just 20c.Do it with CRE at full capacity,with maybe their old mill going(after throwing maybe $30m at it)and maybe you can see 20-35c on the above basis.
So comes some realities. What FML needs is more of everything. More FREE CASHFLOW More HIGHER GRADE ORE More MILLING CAPACITY More PLANT including RUNNING MILLS.
The easiest way is another DISTRESSED/COMPLEMENTARY AQUISITION/MERGER that brings some of the above with it for a fraction of what its worth to FML i.e. ON THE CHEAP Hopefully near existing operations to provide some dual synergy
Failing that and its do it the hard way and FML is as well. The extra higher grade ore is coming from The PITS -at depth see BIG BLOW drilled grades at depth and smile(good QTR coming i hope) The MOUNT -50-60koz/yr yet to be proven(new mining technique in use reducing dilution)
The MILLING CAPACITY,is a function of enough feed and Coolgardies heading for a swamping,so i see expansion to 1.8MT +50% also average grade at 3g/ton at 1.3MT current capacity(+20%)
This above will kill cash costs without the current cost drive. 100koz +20%=120koz + 50% = upto 180koz potential from 3MI. plant.
So FML coolgardie could be doing beyond double the old production when it hit 10c a share,lowered costs,higher grades and producing up to 180 koz and 2 and a 1/2 times as much gold as then.reduce the no of shares by 1/3rd and throw in a token divy and being a cheapskate i am
20c-35c plus a doubling upside(see above-divvy share b/back) FML only - No CRE and No TI and NO nudge nudge wink wink developments.Consolidate CRE totally and make it as productive and you add a similar range on top.If not add half(10c)for its future value to FML .
30-45c with CRE unconsolidated. A causeway and start digging some 30g/ton ore from TI's surface and then you can start talking some serious money.The trouble is you will want a MILL NEARBY.3mi will be full,even at 1.8MT=
???? your guess
A buck in the future doesn't sound so impossible afterall for a company going from 4koz toll milling 4yrs ago to 175koz+ 1 full MILL this year with upside everywhere and expansion on its mind with cash rolling in.
Oh the waste,what to do with the low grade stuff,sidelined on the way.HEAP LEACH-"money for nothing and your kicks for FREE"good old DIRE STRAITS SONG.I remember the comment "while sterilisation drilling around the Coolgardie site resource was getting thrown up everywhere".What were they looking to place on sterilised sites i wonder,or were they just tidying up the site geology for a super pit?FML don't waste drilling.
IT comes down to FML being a known CONSISTENT DELIVERER.As CW has said a DANGEROUS TIME until that happens and it is valued accordingly.Heads have turned with the turnaround seen at CRE operations i am sure.Others are seeing how they too can profit from FML's methods shown in turning CRE around,or just from FML's operational skills possibly linked to their existing operations.Hopefully as desperate vendors selling existing operations finding a potential BUYER rather than attempting to aquire FML to reinvigorate theirs.FML's conveniently confusing enough to keep the vultures WARY,in so many ways IMHO.Research 3Mi and you get a nuclear accident.Research FOCUS and you get all sorts of rubbish.The costs are enough to make an accountant wary,an investor cautious with his money and give an Angel investor a WRY SMILE,but only after a lot of personal research.
ALL SUPPOSITION-DANGEROUS THOUGHTS INVOLVING WISHFUL THINKING-NO RECOMMENDATION AT ALL-DYOR+DYODD Got my lottery tickets is all i can say and 20c won't be enough to make me part with them now i've done this,given other figures and thoughts i have.McFOCUS may yet give some entrenched miners,with small narrow outlooks a run for their money and little for their operations as they collect more so called LEMONS/MARGINAL OPERATIONS/OLD PLANTS for a song on their way to bigger things.There are enough of them about,bigger than FML as CRE potentially was,for the picking for next to NIX.
Spent too long doing this.
DYOR+DYODD carefully
FML Price at posting:
3.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)