last 131.5 on 5.277 Mill vol at 1pm over 5M at midday.... shows room for big volume increase in afternoon trading.... buys and sells evenly matched 2.4m v 2.3m
its tight...buyers are on the fence waiting to pounce...not showing their positions atm...
Germany now leaning towards a re start of reactors japan already for re starts the power crunch in both countries is starting to hurt and they have no other options...
when the lights go out...the people will want power and they will be told its nuclear or rolling brown outs for years to come...... its the domestic consumer that consumes the bulk of all power generated not industry......industry have back up generators in place...more expensive to use but the cost will be passed on to consumers...a double hit for consumers....
by now the top 20 are in an increased stronger position with ,I believe many holdings just sitting in probably new nominee accounts at just below the mandatory 5% reporting level......
As I have said below.....its a prime target.... it could end up being a combined takeover by a producer or uranium and a consumer of uranium.....
its too cheap and the uranium is in a consolidation phase.....and will be whilst the price of uranium is in the US$50 range....a prime time to strike.......
now for the previous comments.... ------------------------------------------------
top 20 holding 78% + ------------------------ looking good but we still have to get through june before we can expect any significant action.....but it looks like someone has been very busy mopping up stock on the cheap
notice ubs haven't been putting out anymore shareholder notices and L1 capital haven't also...nor have Nab
have a close look at all the UBS notices if you look hard enough you will see something many may have missed.. dates 27/4/12 27/4/12 04/05/12 07/05/12 10/05/12 --------------------------------------------------------------------- as long as uranium prices are low.....then this is the period during which the industry will move to consolidate.....]
share prices offer good opportunity for M&A esp attractive for the nuclear power industry........ ------------------------------------------------- riow and cameco have shown the lead......now for the maker buyer of uranium to step in......whilst uranium is stuck in the spot $50 range, well below the 2017 conv note price of $US2.19 and at the time that was Aud$2.13...at that stage the asx price for Pdn was Aud$1.57/share Rio and cameco have thrown their hats into the market ..marking the beginning of a period of consolidation of uranium producers and uranium explorers..... cameco is now on track to raise over 1Billon dollars in cash.....its time frame isan extended one ...but that may just to put off suitors for assets that cameco has its eye on.....
it could all happen sooner for Cameco than what they state...its an open ended capital raising date.....
and there are more deep pockets out there esp in the Nuclear power industry.....
after June 30 I expect better things to happen ...with consolidation in the industry to continue whilst the price of uranium is still in the US$50 /lb range..... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ i think that if this wolf named cameco appears at our doorstep .....then you expect the rest of the pack to be not far behind......
we look cheap and easy pickings...but when wolves smell blood they go into a frenzy......
the pack could end up biting at each other heels to get their share of Pdn.....
would not surprise me if two of thw wolves join forces and split up pdn...taking what they want ...and tossing out the rest for anyone keen to pay a fair price.......
but Pdn will not go easy.....it will not disappear into the darkness without a fight....
the price is attractive atm...so that makes a premium offer to the market price very easy and cheap.....
but will the price stay cheap....before an offer appears... will it be over $2 before an offer appears....
this stock by now has to be about 80% owned by funds, nominees and one mining company Newmont Mining with almost 7%
its not going to be walk in the park takeover.......
these major shareholders NOT only want their investment back in full ...but also want a good PREMIUM to the market price to make it worthwhile...
they jumped at the $1.20 capital raising *****
the Conv Note Buyers snapped up the new 2107 Bonds ..no delays ..WITH A FACE VALUE OF us$2.19 AT 6%PA*****************
the 2013 conv notes holder wasted no time in tendering their 2013 conv Notes to get the EARLY BIRD PRICE....but its seems they won't get their fill as now it will be done on a pro rata basis....with some late birds getting a US$2000 haircut per US$200,000 conv notes accepted*******
2 OPERATIONAL PLANTS costs internally to drop due to the currency devaluation...... all contracts denominated in USD Both Plants approaching 100 nameplate and may well exceed this..... Contracts signed for 60 to mid US$60 lb range with more contracts signed since that report......
Qld and Canada assets ..a future fortune sitting to be developed....with Qld just waiting for the LNP to settle in and then turn its focus on following the Gillard lead on opening up Aust for Uranium exports....along with just about every other state...... Qld is not about to let this rich export just sit in the ground.....they are on the opposite side of the fence to the GREENS...so the green opinon means nothing to the LNP..anyway the Greens are falling apart..Brown out and a new Queen runs the show....she will fall on her swords soon enough.....
Canada just on the doorstep to energy hungry USA...and Rio knew this and snapped up Hathor to the detriment of cameco.... BOTH Australia and Canada are considered the lowest possible soverign risk to future supplies of uranium and both are stauch allies of the USA.....so what Pdn has in both countries is of serious National importance to the US Govt and its Nuclear Power industry .************
A buyer will by now be approaching all major shareholders and feeling them out to determine what offer they will accept.......
Newmont was rumored ,not so long back,to be a seller....they denied it.....where there is smoke there is generally fire......thats almost 7%
We were recently over the $2 mark...and then suddenly it was driven down in earnest for no good reasons....some would say it was just following the market trends.....others will say it was the strike.......( i might add many charts don't show the rise over the $2 mark...but it was on my screen..they show it ending close to it) a contentious point but not important in the grand scheme of things.*****************************
seems to me all that bad reporting after the 14/02/2012 asx report should have killed it off ..if one didn't read the report in full.....but in march it went to or over the $2 mark....(that's to satisfy the detractors that will follow)*********************
..its after that rise ...it was hit with sellers..a combination of Dt profit takers,panic sellers, stop losses being hit ,shorters and those manipulating bot masters......
my conclusion all along is that the stock has been undergoing a consolidation in its share registry.....with a lot of new holder sitting just under the 5% reporting mark....
based on the new conv note price of US2.19... I'm adding in a premium to that that will take an initial offer close to $3...anything lower will be laughed at by major shareholder......
the major shareholders will be betting that in the end there will be more than ONE BIDDER..................
have a look back to see what the Newmont Holding originally cost.......they inherited them from a takeover....but would have been factored into the valuation of the takeover TARGET.
So I'm still looking for activity from July onwards...
and don't discount a Nuclear power producer teaming up with a firm like cameco to launch a bid.....the synergy would be perfection. they feed off each other and grow fat **********
PDN Price at posting:
$1.30 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)