THB 8.11% 4.0¢ thunderbird resources limited

spoke to the company, page-9

  1. jhu
    504 Posts.
    Thanks Hadas for your response. The only agenda I am running is trying to understand what is going on, and using the information that I have at hand (ie disclosed by VOR). A bit of information and hopefully some discussion might just allow me to understand if I should just cut my losses and run tomorrow.

    In relation to CPS I have been doing a bit of work since my last post and I note the following:

    - The share trades on 29/5 totalled 7.6 million;
    - The share trades on 31/5 totalled 21 million;
    - making an outlandish assumption that a large proportion of these was the same party (yes I know about the Corporations Act and churning) the net is 13 million
    - assume that say 2 million shares on 29/5 were just normal activity then this takes the net to 15 million.

    Now the last top 20 share holders report (annual report in 2011 as at 2/8/2011) provided the following information:

    - CPS Securities had fallen off the list (so it held at that point less than 5.5 million shares) down from 8.447 million shares the previous year;
    - Peterson held in his superfund 7.969 million shares down from 26.615 million shares the previous year; and
    - Celtic Capital held 8.532 million shares up from 6.496 million the previous year.

    With no-one holding more than 5% of VOR (not even Matthew Wood) it makes it hard to work out share movements. So they maybe still there or they may have gone a long time ago.

    So assuming that CPS is no longer a holder this leaves a net 16.5 million shares held by Peterson's superfund and Celtic, just before there is a need for a new capital raising which CPS Securities has allways been there to support.

    Now this 16.5 million shares appears very close to the net 15 million shares traded in the last couple of days.

    Now lets take a look at the all mighty leaders and their shareholdings since Voyager was vended into the old Lafayette back in 2009.

    Since 2009 there have been 2 rights issues. I gather that with your shareholding you would already know what level of participation there was from the original 3 executives of MW, NL and TF.

    2010 Rights issue at 1.75 cents and option of 2 cents

    - TF did not even participate. This amounted to a total outlay of $209,375 that he did not contribute (including the exercise of the option at 30/9/2011);
    - At the same time MW did not participate fully with a total shortfall of $173,659 or in other words he took up 4,285,771 shares at 1.75 cents but did not take up 4,630,897 shares and option; and
    - NL did not particpate fully as well with a shortfall of $128,571. He took up 571,429 shares but did not take up 3,428,571 shares and options.

    And again in 2011 with the 6 cent rights issue MW, TF and NL did not take up one of the rights they were entitled to. They must not have thought that it was a good deal taking up the rights when the shares were trading at 6.8 cents with the shares falling to close at 4.4 cents at 30 June 2011.

    From my experience when the ones in the know do not participate then this is pretty much an indication of the future direction of the company.

    Even with no-one, including MW holding more than 5% of the shares this also concerns me. There is no-one in the company with an absolute buy-in. No one has any real risk attached to the future of the company. For example the risk capital that MW has on the line in the company is a total $445,216 and of this $257,500 was from the vending in of Voyager in 2009 for a total value of $10.5 million. And the only thing that Voyager had at the time was access to the gold permits in Mongolia of Gobi Gold and Tsagaan Gold (it did not actually own them at the time), $200,000 in cash and $25,000 in liabilities.

    The same applies to TF with his shareholding of 16.75 million shares at $167,500 being from the intial 2009 deal, and NL recieving 12 million shares valued at $120,000 in 2009 but at least parting with a further $21,429 to acquire 1,142,858 shares.

    So simply put MW, NL and TF have practially a free carry in VOR, with them having no real risk of loss in the event that this goes belly-up.

    None of this really gives me peace of mind. In the event that I stick around (holding or not) then only way that I would buy any more shares would be if MW, NL and TF put out an annoucement that if there is a rights issue that they will fully participate and take up all their rights.

    Now, in my next exerciose I will be going back to see what MW has achieved in the other companies he has taken to the ASX, starting with the ones as disclosed in the 2009 prospectus of:

    - Black Range (BLR) - raised $23.3 million (I note current market cap at 1 June 2012 of $16 million);
    - Elk Petroleum (ELK) - raised $4.2 million (I note current market cap at 1 June 2012 of $19 million);
    Kasbah Resources (KAS) - raised $10 million (I note current market cap at 1 June 2012 of $86 million);
    - Overland Resources (OVR) - initially raised $3.5 million and then subsequently raised $22 million (I note current market cap at 1 June 2012 of $6 million);
    - Bellamel Mining - raised $12 million and then subsequently sold to Norton Gold Fields in 2008 (for how much I do not know).

    But so far 2 of the 4 appear at first glance to be failures, not including VOR.

 
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