isis webcast worth checking, page-12

"If we can hold off from an early tie-in until we have successful PII data in early 2013 we could easily be looking at a deal worth half a billion dollars to ANP... and that would see the value of ANP sit around the 50c-$1 mark on ATL1103 alone"

Just for some perspective

beacuse i know you guys love it lol

Assuming 100% conversion of options ANP will have over 1.4B shares on issue -

$1 = $1.4B mc $0.50c = $700M mc

Now "PII data in early 2013" is indeed optimistic but i guess not entirely impossible, stranger things have happened although even management have forecast "interim results potentially available by mid 2013" which is also probably a prudent move for them to not rush forward with promises, don't forget ATL-1102 lagged 12 months for completion forecast for mid 2007 & released in mid 2008, not unusal for clinical trials to stretch but i guess highlights the weight in expecting later dates than earlier looking forward. Of course you can say Phase I finished ahead of schedule but in comparison P1 VS P2 - enough said. Excaliard is also a good guide the commenced Phase II trials in January 2010 released data a year later in January 2011 & Pfizer didn't come to the party until December 2011. These things always take time & it's not uncommon for multiple Phase II trials to be required.

Any deal though is all about the upfronts, milestones show great "potential" into the future but markets wont bring that value into the stock until it's achieved, there's many examples in Aus market but even to go to ISIS as an example - $300M+ CIB $1B market cap & $3.5B+ in milestones.

ISIS have a big task ahead to shift the whole paradigm many big pharma walked away from RNAi Roche, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer all went running last year closing labs pulling out of research projects & while some have now come back as is seen with ISIS it's still has an air of uncertainty & (imo) the reason no-one has moved hostile on ISIS with a $1B market cap rather stitch milestone based agreements to mitigate risk. It can't be denied though that ISIS are pulling in some large upfronts though. It's still an early stage of science & i guess still convincing needs to be achieved. Depending what parts of the conference you where paying attention to there where cards put up that explain the long history ISIS has been around in an effort to capitalise the area for 20+years shareholders asking "why is the stock price still here" management "we ask ourselves the same thing". All comes back to what needs to be achieved from here.

Take what you want from it but i do think people specualting a $1 share price for ANP or a $1.4B value in a years time is asking alot. Look at what ISIS has now for just over $1B & people are speculating that ANP's 3 early stage candidates from the platform will be worth more than ISIS current value in 12 months.