pick the most likely canning Disallowed, page-15

Hard to say really, also depends on what you mean by near term.
If BRU weren't likely to be taken over before they get close I'd say BRU still probably has the best chance overall but not near term and not with a t/o likely. This is purely on the size of their prospective resources, how derisked they are given they've actually got successful drills in the ground and the rest of their plays.

NSE could do it targetting both wet gas and conventional oil.. If they hit just gas I'm not sure they'll get there quickly though (success in the goldwyer will also boost BRU's goldwyer's acreage). If they hit lots of conventional oil on one of the three drills I'm sure some people will be sitting on tenbaggers but not from 50c most likely..

OBL is really mostly about Derby atm and I doubt we'll see any movement there for at least half a year (OBL said it would be up to 6 months for native title to be resolved and I doubt they'll announce any farm ins the day after). It will most likely be another year after that before a drill is in the ground to prove whether the laurel tight gas play extends onto their acreage, but that would most likely get them near 160m mkt cap with some success.

KEY are probably more of a wildcard, in a sense I see them as on par with OBL, with OBL relying more on what BRU is doing and KEY relying more on what NSE is doing. Near term I see them going up further than OBL if NSE is successful but they'd have to also farm out and have a successful drill in the ground to get near 95m and that isn't going to happen any sooner for them than for OBL (most likely a year after)

Really a lot depends on what happens during the rest of this year, we'll have a lot better idea of the Laurel and the Goldwyer by the end of it, and for OBL and KEY it's probably not going to hurt too much to wait.

Pretending for a moment that they have successes, which obviously isn't likely, i'd see maybe OBL and NSE being able to get close at least in 18-24 months of continued success (once again not saying this is likely, we're talking NSE striking it on 2-3 drills, some oil and the year after as well, OBL getting a partner and drill in the ground), KEY maybe 18-24 months as well if they start working on getting a partner.
And all especially if BRU keeps the canning hot, they're still the safest place for money atm although not neccessarily to ten bags.

Of course, I have money on all of them according to how I value them, and the OBLOBs don't have to reach 34c to x 10.

all IMHO from the fairyland where you assume everyone has success ;)