production update, page-4

Hi everyone,

From what I can gather IF the bigger ship can get away later on in the month that'll be about 1.45Mt for the quarter or at an annualised rate of 5.8Mtpa. Well above the 5Mtpa ramp up target. Also, I'd say that the second and last upgrade at the crushing plant would be close to being commissioned if not already. The projection for the next financial year was for a continuing production rate of 5Mt. But you'd have to think that will be on the conservative side now. 5.8Mt for FY13 seems to be more on the cards with the NIOJV possibily going beyond 5.8Mtpa after September 2012 once FMG's second car dumper comes online. Mike Hallowell said on a couple of occasions that there could be a "very good chance" of the NJV doing 7Mtpa for FY13. looking at some of the facts, such as FMG have spare capacity through the 'Pilbara Infrastructure PTY LTD' post September. It could be that this little battler BC Iron could be going places next financial year. My educated guess is the 5.8Mtpa rate will continue until September and FMG may -- due to spare capacity, allow the NIOJV to go well beyond 5.8Mtpa post September if BCI are ready for that increased rate post September. I definitely think 6Mt for FY13 will be the production base. With 7Mt a possibility.

And credit where credit is due. In this stone age of CEOs not even gettin' close to production predictions. It good to see a CEO like Mike Young who if anything understating his goals. Spruiking your company with unrealistic goals is the easiest thing in the world to do. Actions however speak much loader than words.

Lastly, guys the money from that last ship probably won't hit this quarter's bank account at this stage anyway. I'll try and keep you posted though. It doesn't matter, I mean if it hits the books in early July instead of late June who cares really. It just makes a difference to those who divide the tonnage by the cash to get some kind of idea of opex ... which can be unfair. Just look at what happened in the last quarter.

Bye chelkn xoxoxoxoxoxo