QBE is not an NTA play, it is or at least was an earnings play. The intangibles of $6B relate to the various acquisitions made over the past years. What is interesting is that this number has not increased that much over past 2 years despite their large acquisitions. This indicates that they are not paying much goodwill on acquisitions. When they reported in February they indicated that all acquisitions had performed well ( despite the group result) and thus I see little risk in a wholesale write off in intangibles.
Holders or investors should have a look at page 1 of 2011 Annual report. This to me shows what the earnings potential really is. Net Earned Premium rose from $9.4B to $15.4 B from 2009 to 2011, i.e. an increase of 63%. Net profit after tax in 2009 was $1.5 B. If all the metrics remained the same then 2011 could have seen an NPAT of $2.5 B versus their actual result of $494M. OK so risk free rates have changed, investment earnings also and they have had large cat losses like never before. This will change. Don't be surprised by a $1B H1 profit. Roll arm over on this and a full year of $2b. At 10 times PE this gives a share price of $18. Oh and that gives us a divi back to $1.28 at their stated 70% payout ratio.
Also have a read of page 19 of 2011 Annual, and I think you'll see why the above is not a stretch.
Yes $18 at a 10 x PE, that's my initial target.
I hope we get early guidance post 30 June, of likely first half result.
Good luck to all.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- QBE
- all the hype
all the hype, page-8
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 4 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add QBE (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
$16.07 |
Change
-0.260(1.59%) |
Mkt cap ! $24.14B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$16.18 | $16.25 | $15.91 | $54.95M | 3.422M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 12522 | $16.07 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$16.08 | 5991 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 12522 | 16.070 |
1 | 4566 | 16.040 |
4 | 18612 | 16.020 |
1 | 300 | 16.010 |
1 | 17224 | 16.000 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
16.080 | 5991 | 1 |
16.090 | 1000 | 1 |
16.120 | 17224 | 1 |
16.130 | 18612 | 3 |
16.150 | 17224 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 21/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
QBE (ASX) Chart |