$4 club

When I first suggested the formation of the $4 club,it wasnt an overnight thought,or after a six pack suggestion.
It was always about mathamatics.
It was to give us an idea what is required to reach a figure that would say ..we have arrived.
It was always dependent on production,you cant do maths without correct input.
The formula then is the same as now,and as it will be in the future.
The basket price x tonnage produced x converted to kilos /no of shares.
The variable is the PE allotted.
we have known since day 1 that phase 1 will produce 11,000 t and phase 2 22,000t.
Why $4.
You can key in numerous figures here.
Basically..using the set formula..if the basket price is $50...then about 14,000 t yearly output gets us around $4.

At the time i thought 14-16000 t output.

This always included phase 2 so it was more then unlikely to happen in 2012.

2013 has one major catalyst..Siemens JV.
Presumption Siemens would start building 2012 complete 2013 Q2 in line with 14-16000 Lamp output.

Phase 1 output is 11,000 t..lets call that 1000t pm.
So currently if TOL done in June..july/aug/sept..trials reruns allowance for nothing..we can exspect 3000t by xmas.

So 14-16000 t would take us to q4 2013.

Thats the worst case scenario.

Why worst case.
Siemens.
The crown in our jewel.
Convert an oxide into a magnet..how much more expensive..10--20--50--100---200 times more.
The basket price at mates rate will pale in insignificence ..magnet income the unknown.
At this stage a new formula will be needed.
Manufacturing...have you read one analyst that has Siemens in their calculations..we need ..and no reason why not..have Siemens up and running by q2 2013.

Somewhere in between all that LYC will hit $4..2013..not 2012 or 2014...2013.

Right now we cant do any maths.

We are pregnant and yet to give birth.
As such we are suffering all the symptoms..morning sickness..some days worse then otheres..how bad was today..discomfort,sleepless nights,lose of appitite,mood swings.
Our baby is still 3 months away.
yes its overdue,and that adds to the pain.
I took the analyst path..the bean counters that sit in basements with tennis shades on.
They work on maths.
I never included politics..as that was always representing risk delays and unknowns.

In summary.
Being a long term holder still means that milestones have to be achieved and they wont be calculated on love and fresh air...but maths.
Risk management.
When do you hold ,when do you fold.
During this pregnant stage there are no rules...survive as best you can.
When the baby is born..then you can resort to maths...your mud map will tell you the future.

Accept with wisdom that currently its all about guess work..is it a boy,a girl,twins,healthy,all worry,no facts.

Our strength is that our babies mother is one of a kind,a pedagree envied by the world....as far as wealth is concerned..she is the richest..her relatives living next door are world class,one even wears a Crown,and her best mate Duncan a giant in the high grade Ree arena.We are in the company of royalty.

Now visualise the birth,its growth ,its path..when you can take out your calculator and make a more educated estimate.

For trhe Optimist.
$65 basket x11,000t gets $4 (thats $65 net of costs..so costs $15..basket price $80...thats from phase 1 only.
DYO sums.