Hi ausheds,
Looking at the following REE supply / demand chart, you can see world consumption is going up by ~20ktpa, so providing Molycorp doesn't come online for a while, I'd expect the extra supply provided by Lynas will not impact the basket price. However, once Molycorp is online, I think the CeO and LaO contributions to the basket price will be minimal as they'll be in oversupply and a $40 basket price is definitely on the cards:
http://www.gwmg.ca/html/about_rare_earth_elements/key_stistics/index.cfm
However, I think what's really going to save Lynas is the Duncan deposit with all its HREE which won't go into oversupply for the foreseeable future:
http://www.mining.com/2012/06/19/the-only-five-rare-earth-elements-that-matter-jack-lifton/
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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5 | 26354 | $6.10 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$6.15 | 3758 | 2 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 10596 | 6.100 |
2 | 329 | 6.090 |
3 | 1300 | 6.080 |
6 | 28264 | 6.070 |
2 | 166 | 6.060 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
6.210 | 710 | 1 |
6.230 | 5000 | 1 |
6.280 | 4100 | 1 |
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