systematic sell down, page-19

Guess-timates on cash flow & Crux value:

Value of Crux deal $637m aprox (using $75m for 2% of crux as a guide)
Cash end Q3 $36m
Recoverable long term lead items? guess $30m
Est Cash flow Longtom Q4 $13m (if same as Q3)
-----------
$716m
-----------
Debt end Q3 $234m
Sedco liability? $30m
Longtom costs & repayments Q4 $27m
-----------
$425m
-----------
shares 1326m
-----------
Rough value/share cash + crux - debts 425/1326 = 0.32

Add in speculative estimates for future earnings from Longtom & Prelude?
Add in speculative estimate for Echuca.

Undervalued at .11 I think even in worst case scenario. Downward push on price due to big sellers eg M&G. Seems like there must be a different reason for the big sales than just estimated value of the shares in the company.

With M&G selling lots this is convincing others to sell as well. How much do M&G want to get rid of? If it's all of them it will be a long time before sp goes up again.

Credit suisse seem to be picking quite a lot of them up!

Once everything settles down maybe the sp will get back to .30+?