Voltaire,
I have a similar line in the sand for different reasons...
Although not clear on the cash chart there were two 50% retracements in the rally up to the last high.... So on a short time frame this rally is quite mature and I wouldn't expect to see it retrace more than 3/8 which is sitting at around the 1335 level. It's already done a 1/4 retrace so not much further to fall if the trend is still up.
A solid move through the 50% retracement is good odds for swift follow through imo.
XJO has coincident support based on a measured move and previous lows at 3700... that would likely imply a new low on the spx.
Fly in the ointment is the spx breadth... overbought but still bullish.
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