FDM 0.00% 1.1¢ freedom oil and gas ltd

may production data, page-28

  1. 33 Posts.
    I'm normally pretty quiet but had to put in my 2c this time.

    My view on this debate is as follows..

    Paul has a point! The "current" production figures do not support the current market cap. I doubt anyone here has an argument against that.

    Sure MAD have not got a history of great production figures as of now but that IMO has not been their focus. My view is that over the last 12 months they have been negotiating more land deals along with proving up and significantly increasing their current reserves. Showing the world including your competition and existing land owners huge production figures during a time where you are negotiating further acreage would be counterproductive and would obviously increase the difficulty to acquire further acreage at cheap rates, which they have managed to do as we all know.

    It is the 1P and 2P reserves they have established during this period of low production that underpins and justifies the current market cap.

    At the same time they have elected to complete all their contract drilling while they complete and assess the 2d and 3d  seismic data they need to maximize the effectiveness of their upcoming drilling campaign, or moving from exploration to exploitation as they put it.

    It couldn't have been done better in my opinion, and MAD are now set to begin the exploitation which if past history is anything to go by, could exceed all our expectations yet again.

    Ive always thought the 4th quarter of this year is where we will see the real growth in the SP as the production numbers and $ are confirmed, and as we get closer I am only getting more comfortable with that logic.

    As for PGI, I feel this is also a significantly undervalued stock that appears to have excellent potential. But Paul although they are maybe only days away, PGI are also yet to 'prove' their process works at the forecast rates and have not yet produced any Au or Ag from their processing plant. There is still some risk there also which must be being factored into the SP at the moment.

    Apologies for the rant, I dont see why people are so defensive against Paul's views or anyone else who has a differing point of view, he does have a point, but I dont think what he is focused on ie production levels, is what the MAD management has been focused on up until now nor why MAD is priced the way it is. The next 6 months should give a better indication of where they production numbers and reserves could be in three to five years time. It is still very early days in the MAD story.

    Please Note: I am a holder of both stocks PGI and MAD and can see significant upside potential in both but as a holder I may be biased. As always do your own research.

    Good luck to all. Should be an interesting day tomorrow
 
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