just been reading through the D J Carmichael research/recommendation notes for CTP. CTP is currently at an MC of 166 mill with approx 360 listed and unlisted options. EXE is currently at an MC of 46 mill with approx half as many options. CTP has about 16.5 mill in cash and EXE just a tad under 10mill..so no biggie there.
The main points DJ Carmichael are selling CTP on are
1. New CEO Richard Cottee guided QGC from a minnow penny stock to a $5.7 bill at the time it was taken over. In reply I would point out that our CEO Rob Crook was was Managing Director of QGC and guided the team responsible for the discovery and demonstration of commercially viable CSG in the Surat Basin in 2002. Also I would point out that CTP has been going through some very ugly internal and external conflict. Although much of this is now being resolved under Cotttee it is still ongoing to some extent....that's gotta hurt the sp. EXE do NOT have any such conflict. A plus for CTP is that Cottee seems to be quite the salesman and their website now seems to have a never ending scrolling of information tidbits. EXE tends to be a lot quieter in this regard.
2. The next point DJC make is the amount of potential farm in partners CTP now have. We already have CNOOC and still have about half the 50mill bucks they put up to spend on exploration.
3. DJC pontificates with lots of rhetoric about CTP's diversity and POTENTIAL for trillions of cf of gas and billions of barrels of oil both conventional and unconventional. EXE also has no shortage of such potential (or rhetoric)
4. CTP have their surprise discovery. Initial estimates are that Surprise is P50 110 mill barrels oil in place but more appraisal is needed. EXE has Katherine with P50 206 million barrels oil in place. EXE owns half of this (Cnooc the other half) so EXE is pretty much on a par there with CTP and surprise. EXE also needs further appraisal.......
But here is the BIG difference. CTP has a test flow rate of 380 bopd and this month sent their first shipment of oil to market.... so far we have zippo/zilch/zero numbers for flow rate. I don't think this is a point we can ignore. EXE needs some flow rates from Katherine and IMHO that would see a substantial move upwards in the SP...particularly if we could achieve a similar flow rate to CTP
D J Carmichael have placed a speculative target of 33c on CTP. Undiluted this translates to a MC of about 450 mill or about 570 mill if you were to include all their options. Fully diluted EXE would have a register of about 600mill shares so an MC of 570 mill would be about 95c/ share. Even at CTPs current undiluted MC of 166 mill by comparison EXE undiluted would be worth about 37c/share...so still a long way up from the 11c level we currently sit at.
Make of it what you will. Reports like this one from DJ Carmichael are a dime a dozen and often are no reflection of what eventually happens in the real world....but at least it is something. ATM EXE has potential more than anything else and it is very hard to put a value on..so at least this comparison is something. I think the main point to take from all this is that flow rates from Katherine would be very helpful to out cause.
EXE Price at posting:
11.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
