component value, page-3

Mike,

Thanks. Yes NPAT would be best but not available by sector, hence my use of EBIT. Agree revenue would be useless. As for alumina etc, I am only going to think about IO, Petroleum and Copper, and simply call the rest 20%.

For gas vs oil, also agree. However ATM low value US gas looks to be a fairly small part of the mix, and they seem intent on focussing on the liquids rich shale near term. That's where the uncertainties get huge for me, and I suspect for most of the market.

I missed a couple of salient points wrt IO in my first look at future production,, namely the Brazil bit and the debottlenecking to 240 from 220. I am certainly seeing a lot more value per tonne there wrt FMG, with MRRT, lower costs, and better sales value per tonne. From my perspective anything beyond 240 tpa a bonus, or just a dream.

Looks like I need to do quite a bit more to get my own view on LT IO margins, which I guess is the key every analyst is trying to unlock.

EL