Stefanis,
The IO cost curve BHP presents seems to me to actually show a fair bit of high cost stuff, and also the suggestion that the high cost Chinese domestic stuff is getting even higher cost through steeply falling grades. Which I guess brings closer into focus the costs of the smaller WA producers, and even of FMG. I am obviously going to see what RIO and some others are saying before perhaps deciding a LT EBIT margin of perhaps 30 to 40 USD/t was safe for BHP?
For the shale I am more interested in the liquids potential from Eagle Ford and the Permian and whether BHPs stated and reported optimistic comments are well justified.
If the shale thing is as big as its touted to be, then no one, not even BHP imho, is likely to make a margin better than a dollar or two per mcf, short of coal being banned or something. They're going to make the money from the liquids and NGLs.
Really I guess I just expect to get a handle on whether shale is going to substantially grow petroleum, or just be a major component.
My exercise will come to nought unless BHP crashes another barrier anyway, and my being a little more cashed up before then as well.
EL
EL
component value, page-5
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$42.10 |
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0.910(2.21%) |
Mkt cap ! $213.5B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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