Grant64t,
It's always good to see somebody else labouring over the same things I sweat over ;)
A couple of things (thought that as you have the spreadsheet handy) would make it easy to change.
For those that want to know where I am coming from..
PE = Mvalue per share/EPS
&
EPS=(NET Income -Divi for pref stock )/Ave no of shares
(I assume nil pref stock)
To get a more accurate Net income (before tax), can you factor in an interest cost on the say $80m facility that will be required as this will reduce taxable income & tax payable...
Also I know you've used industry average for your PE (is that U industry or U miners?), but I think you may have dudded your self there. It seems when you become a U miner your PE increases (significantly) as opposed to being an explorer or resource just inground.
For example Cameco is currently on a PE of 17.44 & ERA trades at a PE of 22.53 to name two...Most of the others on my U watch screen are negative or very low (as still trying to take that step).
To be conservative a 12 to 15 PE (I feel) would be more reflective of the value that would be inherent in a U producer at that point. (Personally I think PE would be higher but good to prune it back for added buffer).
Would be good to see where the number come in at.
My estimate
Income $60m less $8m - interest (ie $80m at 10%)= $52M less production cost of $28m = $24M
$24M income less tax at 39% ($9.36M) = after tax $14.64M
$14.64M/ 840,934,800(Shares) = .0174c per share
.0174 * 12 = 20.88c
.0174 * 15 = 26.10c
Surprisingly slightly higher but still in the same ball park after allowing for the 1 large item of interest charge.
I realise no depreciation included & other add backs like ablation licencing (if we could be so lucky).
Would still like to see the spread sheet if you got the time.
Thanks
M
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