shorting the property market

Looking for trade ideas, if hypothetically you were bearish on the Australian property market.

I see three potential scenarios.

1. Property prices stagnate over the next decade, falling in real terms but nothing too dramatic in nominal terms.
2. We see a significant fall in property prices eg. US, Ireland, Japan. Could be triggered by a number of things eg. a long overdue recession or China significantly slowing
3. The bears are completely wrong, happy days, onwards and upwards for the property market.

If you fall into camp 3, I'm happy to read well thought out ideas but can you please so on another thread.

What impressed me the most about the traders that profited from subprime like Michael Bury & Jamie Mai, wasn't that they saw what most others couldn't, it was the way they structured their trade ideas. They had optionality in their trade so that if they were wrong, they'd lose a little but if they were right there was huge upside. I don't expect to see the level of mis-pricing these guys found as the world is a different place, but its the asymmetrical (limited downside, large upside) nature of the trade I'm looking for.


If scenario 1 occurs, I can't see much of a trade.

Its under scenario 2 I'm looking for ideas. Since we can't buy credit default swaps, I was thinking of long term out of the money put options on property developers and bank stocks.
Before anyone says options don't have limited downside, as the loss is total, I'd only look at putting 1-2% of the portfolio at risk.
Any ideas?