I reckon you are 80% correct Fallguy.
However, gold has been tracking the EURO rather closely in recent times as emerging markets from eastern europe are getting healthier, also the fact remains that commodities have made their secular low, after a 20 year bear run.
Commodities such as weat, cocoa and sugar may be close to topping out (i do not believe this for a second) but silver, gold platinum and palladium has a long way to go (emerging markets are gold backed, all of them). I think $800/oz will be surpassed in the not too distant future as the US economy converges with the rest of the world. Placing your money in quasi related US investment products is not a good idea at this stage imo.
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