SEA 0.00% 16.5¢ sundance energy australia limited

bell potter's latest report

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    I didn't see any posts about Bell Potter's latest SEA report (1st Aug), so here is a summary. Due to copyright, I'll just present highlights and a few quotes:

    Target Price: $1.11
    (up from $1.09 in Bell's March12 report, which was up from 86 cents in its late 2011 report)
    BUY -- "compared with many mid cap oil & gas stocks, we see this as a less risky or speculative call" (Actual price was $.41 at time of report)

    -- Current resources support target of 5,000 BOEPD in 3 years
    -- Low net cash position but good loan facility and maybe asset sales (Bakken)
    -- FY12 NPAT estimate lowered (due to $5M lower revenues, due to lower oil/gas prices)
    -- Bell notes in a few paras SEA's possible asset sale of Bakken, valued at $200M or 68 cents/sh (more than SEA's current market cap).
    -- Wattenberg wells have lower flow rates but good economics ($.16/sh value)
    -- Mississippi acres added, adding reserves potential of 15-25mmboe
    -- No flow info for Leon Pecha-1 may be due to commercial sensitivities or inconclusive results (but don't be harsh if the latter).

    Next reserves report expected in September: "We see either the reserves report or an asset sale as a strong short term catalyst for the share price."

    A Few Estimates:
    YEAR 2012-2013-2014-2015
    BOEPD: 1160 3407 4352 5075
    EBITDA: 11 53 75 96
    EPS Adj: 1.2 10.3 15.3 17.8

    Estimated liabilities are highest in 2013 (Assets=$147M; liab=$52M), lower in other years.
 
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