what the ?, page-21

Zubano my 'considered opinion' is worth about what you pay for it. ;-) I do however have a lot of interest in PEN and while the SP sits around the 3 cent mark I tend not to get too swept up in too much of the warm and fuzzy content that tends to fill a forum full of shreholders who very much want to believe every good bit of news they see and here. I've become something of a sceptic and I lke to see some solid evidence before I believe either positive or negative information from forums, management, broker research or industry experts.

I do believe there is going to be a supply shortfall sometime in the next 8 or so years though I'm not sure yet at what point it will happen or the degree of the shortfall.

Several points of note.
1. A lot of the 'industry exports' who are (loudly) predicting a supply shortfall have an interest in seeing the price of Uranium go up. In effect they're just trying to give the story a little bit of a help along.
2. I've read independant assessments of the Uranium supply/demand equation that predict a far smaller gap looming than these experts.
3. Many posters on this forum, some of who are no longer with us, have been quite vocal about the low U price actually being a benefit to PEN because it will cause many "high cost" producers to abandon their plans or be unable to proceed on finance grounds. This is true up to a point but when PEN itself cannot be profitable at the current U price then by extension we become one of those whose plans get put on hold until we can show potential profitability to finaciers.
4. In the current climate I don't think you'll find many companies willing to take a $40-50 Million punt that they price of whatever is going to be mined will go up by the time the company they finance goes into production. In fact just typing that made me think it's an absurd notion to even contemplate finance being acquired with the current Production cost Vs Spot price (in lieu of LT contract) calculations. I think it's possibly the largest of several factors holding our SP down at this point.

All this isn't meant to scare you. It's a timing issue mainly not a deal breaker.As I said earlier I do believe we will see a shortfall or at least the likelihood of a shortfal apparent enough the market to cause a U price rise some time not too far off. I'm quietly hoping we see a trend reversal by EOY with some confidence that 12 months should be enough for a definite turn around. This I hope WILL be enough to bring funding agreements to the table. As you'd have noticed if you follow the forum here there's a growing realisation that perhaps management are being a tad optimisitic with their permitting schedule so in reality it would probably not hurt our production schedule much if funding was 6 - 12 months away.

Anyway, enough rampbling from me. Have a good weekend and lets hope next week bring better news.