"Jordinson inherited a long dead asset in Mehdiabad."
Mehdiabad is at the very least an $18m debt the Iranians owe us (regardless of what the market may think about it). It may have been dead from the point of view of getting a JV up and running, and may be for a long time yet. Exchanging an $18m debt for a fraction of that value to get an even smaller slice of project that is two years away from the being at the same stage as Mehdiabad, and which will require us to put money in to bring it to the same development stage shows a lack of business acumen on the part of Mr Jordinson.
It is not the value today as perceived by the Mr Jordinson or by the market of our Mehdiabad project that matters: it is how it is likely to change in the near future that Jordinson should be considering, but of course he is totally unqualified for doing that (going by his utterances in the Quarterlies). That doesn't mean he can never get a good outcome for UCL shareholders: it just means there is a HIGH RISK of delivering a massive unintended windfall to MAK and the Marwarid Mining company. To make an informed decision he needs to read the quality American press, the Israeli press and to read all the learned journals, etc. on Iran. On just the cash flows and timing alone exchanging Mehdiabad for Wonarah is unbelievably stupid on the current terms.
On your other points:
"Of course there is no reason to think regime change would actually be any better, most likely, as in Egypt, entrenched interests will still be in control. How can anyone forecast how we would be treated after a change? It's an impossibility."
I agree, it is an impossibility, but it is unlikely to deliver a worse regime: the Israelis aren't that stupid. There are problems with lots of people who have been brutalised in Iran in ways people in the West can't imagine (children watching public hangings, etc.) so the next regime won't ever be a peace loving Canberra style democracy in Iran. But on excellence in quality of decision-making I would hope it would be better. On Egypt, I think Morsi has been fairly shrewd so far: he awarded medals to the Generals he sacked (no loss of face?), and he took back some presidential powers from those same Generals. Egypt needs tourists and Western aid, so I don't think the worst fears of the West will be realised, and Egyptians have got more dignity now. But maybe it is best to wait a bit and see how Egypt pans out: Morsi is going to Teheran next week!
"I'm not convinced you are thinking really rationally on this nobull and thus are effectively tilting at windmills. To all practical purposes Mehdiabad is gone. Can it be recovered? Maybe, if we get extra ordinarily lucky but you can't make decisions on that basis."
The basis Mr Jordinson needs to make decisions on is on an informed basis, and he is not doing that as far as diluting us out of Mehdiabad is concerned. And furthermore he is being dishonest about it. I expect the nuclear negotiations with Iran will be declared a failure. Following that there is a good chance the sanctions will be declared to have failed. And then we will be in the business of delivering an ultimatum, and then if that fails, they will be attacked. The timescale is unlikely to exceed 4 months in my view. It would be different if Iran were an open society, like say Japan: nobody would mind them having nuclear weapon know-how but they are not, so I see regime change by some means as a certainty in the next four months.
"In the meantime the accounting of Mehdiabad does not give it away to any third party because these transactions are ultimately all occurring relative to the market price of UCL and the market puts no value on Mehdiabad, it discounts the 18 million to zero."
It is plain stupid transferring Mehdiabad to other holders at zero value: it can't go down anymore and the news in the Middle East indicates change is likely to come very soon to Iran:
No, I am not tilting at Windmills. Jordinson is acting perversely, with a lack of business acumen and he has strayed outside his core competency. Agree to differ on this one?
UCL Price at posting:
13.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
