As I maintain, it is in China's interest that Twiggys maintains a LARGE blocking stake to prevent any hostile takeover, hence avoiding a cap raising is essential.
In combination with an increased Valin stake, BHP can take a hike. It won't happen.
What may happen is Valin may demand a higher stake (via a rights offering using a 60 day average sp for argument sakes, this will quickly inject maybe $2 billion) with some dilution that Twiggy can stomach.
A FIRB approval is a GIVEN especially it still maintains Valin as a minority holder but given Wayne Swan's stance on the Chinese investment debate lately (as Australia is now going broke), it will NOT be blocked.
The rest (the best past) is a loan from a syndicate of chinese banks to party or wholly replace the western banks with a much longer maturity.
possible scenario
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