COK are going to need to sell down their stake in this significantly to fund it IMO. Hopefully to JFE Shoji, and it'd make sense if they do what they did with Mitsui and bring it all into the one JV, which would mean selling down from 80% to 62.5%. That would cut the capex from $330 to $260 upfront, minus whatever cash JFES paid for it.
But it's still a lot of money for COK to find with the current MC and the still-moribund credit markets.
$105/t FOB cost is about what we figured and with existing Baralaba ops is probably a pretty reliable number. So the great unknown is what the PCI price will be. COK is going to be extremely heavily leveraged to the PCI price.
At $180/t their margin will be $75 which will be very healthy. But at $130/t it will only be $25 which when you take in funding costs and overheads is unlikely to be a very impressive NPAT IMO.
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