Because Andres you don't have a crystal ball to predict what will happen, it is only after the event it all becomes certain. You have to include risk.
I would put a $1M on, if I knew the numbers at a specific date in the future... probably more if I showed my banker the future :-).
PEN incidentally in July (after conversion) declined to 3.0c, ie. a 10% loss if you had bought the options at 0.25c and convert at 3c (3.25c total)
PEN SP now 2.7c, you would feel a wally, if you had have bought and converted as you suggest.
I am not saying that you can't make money buying the options now, might even make a fortune, given some luck and good events, ie. a new gold discovery... but comes with considerable risk, the outcome just doesn't follow the maths.
Good luck, last post on this. I hope for a higher SP too.
MOY Price at posting:
70.4¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
