Its now become a situation where you can put reasonable figures on the table to explain where we have been over the last 5.25 years since June 07 (when the first real V success took place ) and where we are at. Also to get a feel about the likely rate of forward progress from here ,based on the cash demanded of CVN under the ECO "proposals". I reckon that since the first worthwhile V hit in June 07 the partners have drilled about 200 V wells,including sidetracks and allowing for 2 rigs being in action for 18 months at one stage. Applying a reasonably high success rate of 70% to 200 produces a tally of 140 initially - successful V wells. Now coming at the 140 result from a different angle we can use CVNs statement that there are OVER 100 V wells that have been closed in but are considered resurrectable (this excludes the ALRO wells) and assume some downward fudging of the real number of shut-in wells (wouldnt you be inclined to fudge a figure like 120 down to 100 in CVNs present situation?). So 20 is my best guestimate of the number of producing V wells right now. 20 V wells at an average of 25 bopd to CVN is 500 bopd. Now allow for the old S wells- say 15 at an average of 20 bopd to CVN and you have your 800 bopd to CVN after the ALRO wells come on stream again.
CVN Price at posting:
9.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)